A number of events in recent months have increased concerns that economic decision-making in Turkey is becoming highly politicized. This will have a negative impact on multinational corporations for most of 2015 as volatility remains high and currency depreciation squeezes…
The current fall in oil prices was one of the disruptors to EMEA performance we anticipated in May this year. As Brent prices fall below US$60/bbl, we have revised our forecast for 2015 average prices to US$65/bbl. Combined with expectations for a rate…
Turkey is at a turning point in its economic trajectory. As the fuel of 2001 reforms runs out, the country is facing growth rates lower than the past decade, rising inflation amidst low consumption, and a depreciating currency. As domestic…
On Sunday, Turkey completed the second of the three milestone elections on the country’s political agenda between 2014 and 2015. Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s victory did not surprise anyone and is not likely to have a major impact on the Turkish…
Recent reversals in capital flows caused large and sudden currency devaluations, faster than many emerging markets expected or could manage. As a result, many market commentators have called this end of the emerging markets opportunity. That statement couldn’t be further…
Peace talks between the Turkey and the PKK, a Kurdish militant organization, are making the biggest progress seen in decades in resolving Turkey’s difficult relationship with its Kurdish population. Although many roadblocks to the successful completion of the process remain,…
Turkey is on a clear slowdown trajectory. Both the consumer and the business sectors are seeing a gradual deceleration of growth, and GDP expanded by only 3.2% in Q1 2012, compared with last year’s annual growth of 8.5%. We expect…