Belarus will suffer another significant recession in 2016. After falling by nearly 4% YOY in 2015, GDP will contract to a similar extent this year as Russian demand for exports further weakens, refined oil transit revenues fall, and government spending…
Five-year Outlook for the Chinese Economy
With the conclusion of China’s annual National People’s Congress this week, the country’s 13th Five-Year Plan is now official. Chinese leaders have committed to maintaining a growth floor of 6.5% during 2016-2020 while gradually liberalizing the market. Of course, balancing…
Mexican peso plunge upends multinationals’ projections for 2016
The Mexican peso has fallen from an average value of 16.4 MXP/USD to 18.29 as of Jan. 29, 2016, an unexpected and unwelcome drop for most multinationals. When FSG last surveyed Mexico executives in late October, 72 percent of executives…
Brazil state-level spending: How bad can it get?
In 2014, state-level spending in Brazil represented 26 percent of total public spending, or approximately US$ 258 billion[i] (federal and municipal spending represented 58 percent and 16 percent respectively). Total state-level spending in Brazil then represented the equivalent of approximately…
Latin America’s Black Wednesday
The last few weeks of 2015 are shaping up to be quite eventful for Latin America. On Wednesday, Dec. 16, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that it would finally begin its much anticipated tightening cycle, placing greater pressure on Latin…
Cutting through the noise on China’s real economy
When speaking about risks to China’s real economy, many commentators are getting distracted. Over the last several months, Beijing’s botched stock market reform and concerns about China’s currency regime have dominated headlines and commentary in many media outlets. But while…
Latin America’s market landscape is dramatically shifting
Savvy companies are rethinking their investment priorities in Latin America: Multinationals are re-prioritizing their investments in Latin America as the region is battered by a confluence of external headwinds and the effects of years of economic mismanagement in some of…