May 2012 Latin America Outlook: Taking Global Volatility In Stride


Frontier Strategy Group’s clients are revising growth forecasts for Latin America’s major economies upwards as the outlook for the global economy begins to stabilize. Growth leaders are emerging in the Andean region, and we expect that Chile, Colombia, and Peru will contend for the highest growth rate in Latin America in 2012. Strong fundamentals are keeping the Mexican economy remarkably stable while Brazil continues to miss the mark. Finally Argentina and Venezuela’s risk profile is increasing significantly, forcing MNCs to reconsider whether the potential rewards warrant the blood, sweat, and tears.

For a more detailed insight on key trends in Latin America, here are the analyst headlines for our key markets:

  • Argentina: The nationalization of YPF has become the clearest indication of the Fernandez Administration’s hostility to investor concerns
  • Brazil: The Brazilian government remains committed to revitalizing the economy, but it has not yet had a discernible impact on industry
  • Chile: Strengthening domestic demand, higher copper prices and an improving international outlook point to continued strength for Chile’s economy
  • Colombia: Strong growth in an uncertain global environment is forcing Colombia to deal with an appreciating currency and rising wages
  • Mexico: Economic prospects appear to be stabilizing, but drug war violence sustains tension
  • Peru: Growing pains in spite of robust consumer spending
  • Venezuela: Chávez looks to foreign patronage to offset the deleterious effects of economic domination by decree

*Melissa Pegus, Senior Analyst – Latin America contributed to this piece

Executives Continue to Pursue High Growth Targets in Brazil


Brazil

  • Despite Brazil’s weaker-than-expected performance in 2011, senior executives responsible for Brazil have high growth targets for 2012
  • Brazil saw disappointing growth in 2011 and is likely to see only a slight improvement in 2012
  • FSG is observing a greater slowdown in revenue growth in industrial companies than in consumer goods companies
  • Given ambitious targets and a sluggish economy, FSG executives are pursuing riskier growth strategies in 2012, with almost two-thirds of clients looking to introduce new products and/or deepen their investments in 2nd and 3rd tier markets
  • Our clients expect their best performances to come from established markets in the Southeast, but are increasingly turning their attention to high-growth markets in the Northeast and Central-West
  • Clients see the need for more investments in marketing and human resources in 2012, building on larger investments in sales staff in 2011

Brazil: High Costs Weigh on Profitability, Limiting the Impact of Growth


Brazil Revenue Growth

Brazil remains a growth engine for multinationals in Latin America:

Despite the economic slowdown, multinationals are counting on Brazil to deliver significant growth in 2012.

But the high cost of doing business, known as Custo Brasil, is eroding the profitability of Latin American business portfolios:

92.3% of executives believe that doing business in Brazil is at least somewhat more costly than the in other Latin American countries.

MNCs and Local Companies Fight for Brazil’s Middle Class


Brazil Middle Class

Multinationals in the consumer space are looking increasingly to the middle class for growth as high-end segments mature.

Local firms are following their traditional customer base as it moves into the middle and upper middle class, putting them on a competitive collision course with multinationals moving down market.

“New middle class consumers are bringing their traditional tastes and preferences with them, helping incumbent local producers tap into the emerging consumer segments.” – FSG Executive FMCG Company

Drivers

The middle class is surpassing the lower class in quantity of households, which changes the traditional shape of the market pyramid and demands a change in strategy.

Leading multinationals are acquiring local producers to enhance their product portfolio and distribution infrastructure in order to meet emerging middle class demand.

Companies that are reluctant to adapt products or stretch their brand equity risk losing middle class customers to more nimble local competitors.

Middle- and higher-end segments are becoming more competitive.

As more multinationals enter Brazil, higher-end segments are becoming increasingly saturated, forcing multinationals to look down-market for new opportunity.

Frontier Strategy Group View

Multinationals that continue to focus primarily on the higher-end segments risk losing emerging middle class consumers to local competitors who are consistently improving and expanding their capabilities in the  medium and high-tier segments in order to gain first-mover advantage.

A failure to plan accordingly will result in MNCs being restricted in their maneuverability as local companies grow in strength.

 

Where are your investments in Latin America? Mexico is outperforming Brazil


Brazil Mexico

MNCs that invested in Mexico in 2011 saw their bets pay off and have set high targets for sales growth in Mexico in 2012. High top-line performance will be augmented by Mexico’s superior profitability relative to high-cost Brazil. Companies that avoided dependence on Brazilian growth will continue to be rewarded throughout 2012 as increasing attention turns to Mexico.

Trend

Mexico is outpacing Brazil as a source for growth for MNCs

  • In 2011, FSG clients saw average sales growth in Mexico of 21%, compared to 13% for Brazil
  • Despite an expected deceleration of growth in 2012, FSG clients expect sales growth in Mexico to slightly outpace sales growth in Brazil

Expansion in the manufacturing sector was a leading force for growth in 2011

  • Current projections expect growth in industrial production to remain in the 5%-6% range in 2012 despite growing external economic uncertainty
  • Industrial production is increasingly destined for domestic markets

Drivers

Continued confidence in Mexico’s policy direction and domestic economic outlook is driving further investment across industries

  • Producer confidence increased in January 2012, with producers citing a growing belief that this is the time to invest
  • President Calderón promulgated a new law on public-private partnerships that should boost  private-sector investments through 2012 and beyond

Capital investments are driving growth for manufacturers

  • Mexican companies’ investments in capital  goods increased by 6.7% YoY in November, with machinery and equipment posting a double-digit increase

 

Financial Times: The high price of booming Brazil


Original article appeared in the Financial Times on February 21, 2012

A friend recently joked over dinner that it is cheaper now to get your shoes shined by a Brazilian in New York than by a Brazilian in São Paulo.

This week, a quick check showed the claim to be true – the price of a shoe shine in central São Paulo was R$10 (about $6) before a tip while one from a Brazilian shoe shiner working the New York office market was $5 including tip.

You might say that serves people right in the first place for getting others to shine their shoes, but that is an argument for another column. The fact is the shoeshine test is just another indicator of the remarkably high cost of business in Brazil.

For managers of multinationals in the booming economy, particularly those arriving fresh off the boat with a spreadsheet full of profit targets copied and pasted from the business plans of their peers in India and China, the country’s high-cost base is the first thing that will hit them. Whether it is that credit-card bill after a night out in Rio de Janeiro or the first hard look at the company wage bill in the office, the new manager will soon have to confront what is called Custo Brasil – the Brazil cost.

This is the conundrum businesses face: Brazil is a high-growth market in terms of opportunities for revenue expansion but it is on average a low-margin market in terms of profitability, particularly for companies in the start-up phase.

The new chief executive will quickly realise that his or her success or failure in Brazil will depend on managing the expectations of the company’s overseas bosses. The trick is to persuade them to invest in the country’s growth while also counselling patience when they demand to know why margin growth is not, at least initially, matching that of other emerging markets.

The conundrum was captured in a survey by Frontier Strategy Group, an business advisory company with a focus on emerging markets, which quoted an unnamed client with a consumer goods business as saying: “I know that Brazil is key to our long-term growth strategy, but my biggest challenge is that for every additional percentage point of growth that we see from Brazil, our overall regional profitability declines.”

Frontier Strategy estimates that the average net margin in Latin America is 10.5 per cent, or nearly a third of gross margins. In Brazil, net margins are 5.4 per cent, or nearly one-seventh of gross margin.

Manufacturers are generally worst hit by the Custo Brasil. A startling illustration of this is the Volkswagen Fox, a Brazilian-made car that has a starting price of more than R$32,000 ($18,660) but sells in the UK at just under £7,000 ($11,100).

The Brazil cost is also reflected in the country’s number 126 ranking out of 183 in the World Bank’s Doing Business report. Frontier Strategy details how it costs double a person’s salary to hire someone in Brazil because of taxes and welfare payments. Meanwhile, it takes 120 days to open a new business in Brazil compared with the OECD average of just under two weeks. So does all this mean that no one is making money in Brazil? No, it is just that the barriers to entry are higher. Companies must clearly identify those costs that are associated with Brazil and benchmark themselves against their peers to see whether their costs are in line with industry averages.

The next step is to develop a strategy that minimises the Custo Brasil – for instance, by identifying the fastest-growing regional markets within the country that have the best infrastructure. Or by finding a balance between targeting the wealthier but more mature south-east and the faster-growing but under-developed north-east.

Companies can also try to make the Custo Brasil work for them. The government is erecting barriers against imports but foreign companies that set up plants locally – such as in the automotive sector – usually enjoy the same protections as Brazilian ones.

Most important is that headquarters understands the equation that, at least in the early years, top-line growth in Brazil will not necessarily mean equivalent expansion of the bottom line.

Ask the shoeshine men. It is a safe bet that even though the São Paulo shoe shiner is earning more per shine, the cost of his brushes and polishing creams are a lot higher than for his brother in New York.

Brazil: Avoiding Recession by a Narrow Margin


FSG View: Stimulus efforts are beginning to take effect, but Brazil is not out of the woods yet as industrial output continues to stall

Market Trends

The two-speed economy continues to develop in Brazil with unemployment sinking to a record-low 4.7% in December. Tight labor markets and real wage hikes are helping to fuel consumer spending while industrial output and manufacturing continue to lag.

Current stimulus measures, coupled with an increase in public spending and lending by the BNDES, should keep the Brazilian economy out of recession in 2012, but will likely be less effective than in 2009 as consumer expectations and business confidence are not as anchored as they were during the previous crisis.

Key Developments

Government efforts to jumpstart the economy by loosening consumer credit are bearing fruit as recent data released by the central bank show that seasonally adjusted economic activity rose 1.15 percent in November from October. Retail sales rose 1.3% over the same period, the fastest pace in 15 months.

Labor costs are expected to rise even further as the government enacts new regulations requiring companies to pay overtime rates for after-hours work calls or emails. While this measure is unlikely to affect compensation for senior managers, FSG expects companies to see an uptick in overtime pay at the analyst and junior management level.

The government announced that the manufacturers of certain tablet computers will qualify for a series of tax incentives, clearing the way for Foxconn to begin producing Apple iPads in Brazil.

The fact that Foxconn required preferential tax treatment to make iPad production profitable is illustrative of the type of cost challenges faced by multinationals looking to produce in Brazil.

Looking Ahead

FSG will be monitoring consumer prices in Brazil to see if the central bank can manage to bring inflation down while continuing to aggressively slash interest rates

Latin America Stays Steady in the Storm


Latin America February 2012

Latin America continues to look strong as 2012 gets rolling. Brazil’s growth remains subdued, but stimulus efforts are beginning to have an effect, and Mexico continuing to spend heavily in the run-up to the July presidential elections. Meanwhile Peru and Colombia continue to perform well despite a volatile international environment.

  • Argentina: Risks to multinationals are growing as Argentina doubles down on trade restrictions in response to deteriorating economic fundamentals
  • Brazil: Stimulus efforts are beginning to take effect, but Brazil is not out of the woods yet as industrial output continues to stall
  • Chile: Chile is poised to weather global economic volatility with strong macroeconomic fundamentals and a sovereign wealth fund
  • Colombia: Retailers and manufacturers remain confident as the economy continues to grow, buoyed by strong investment and stable commodity prices
  • Costa Rica: Fragile public finances and a weakening economy have led the government to raise taxes, imperiling future foreign direct investment
  • Dominican Republic: Economic decline in Europe and new immigration laws will have adverse effects on the tourism, agriculture, and mining industries
  • Ecuador: Government spending and stable commodity prices will support growth in 2012, but overexposure to oil continues to present risks
  • Mexico: Better-than-expected US growth has not stopped government authorities from pursuing stimulative policies to boost consumer spending
  • Panama: An increasingly unpopular Martinelli administration will face a cooling but still high-performing economy in 2012
  • Paraguay: Paraguay is developing a two-track economy with consumption thriving as exports falter
  • Peru: President Humala is doubling down on his centrist, pro-business policies by pushing out leftists from key government posts
  • Uruguay: Uruguay is at the mercy of economic developments in Argentina and Brazil, with current trends pointing to a slowdown in 2012
  • Venezuela: Chávez’s erratic decision-making indicates an increasingly toxic business environment for MNCs

 

Latin America Starts 2012 with New Leaders and Laggards


LATAM January 2012

2011 year-end growth figures and new forecasts for 2012 demonstrate continued, but slower, growth, and the emergence of new risks and opportunities in LATAM. Brazil’s growth will subdued, by recent standards, and Argentina is preparing for a potentially painful economic restructuring. While larger regional economies slow, robust Chile, Peru, and Colombia increase in relative importance.

  • Argentina: High inflation and a yawning budget deficit are forcing Argentina to lower spending, but trade and capital restrictions remain in place
  • Brazil: Brazil faces a rapidly slowing economy, and government authorities are pushing for monetary easing and higher government spending
  • Chile: The Piñera administration faces political and economic headwinds going into 2012 but Chile’s fundamentals continue to shine
  • Colombia: Growing recognition of the long-term potential of the Colombian economy is quickly eclipsing investor fears of violence and instability
  • Costa Rica: Fragile public finances and a weakening economy have led the government to raise taxes, imperiling future foreign direct investment
  • Dominican Republic: Economic decline in Europe and new immigration laws will have adverse effects on the tourism, agriculture, and mining industries
  • Ecuador: Government spending and stable commodity prices will support growth in 2012, but overexposure to oil continues to present risks
  • Mexico: Mexico enters 2012 with confidence earned from economic resilience and hopes for a smooth political transition in July
  • Panama: Panama’s economy boosted by trade agreement with the US, but political uncertainty clouds the prospects for Martinelli’s reform agenda
  • Paraguay: Contrary to previous expectations, Paraguay will see lackluster growth due to weakening external demand and supply shocks at home
  • Peru: Protests are hurting President Humala’s political standing, but the economy remains strong despite growing political uncertainty
  • Uruguay: Uruguay is at the mercy of economic developments in Argentina and Brazil, with current trends pointing to a slowdown in 2012
  • Venezuela: New socialist legislation makes it harder to turn a profit and easier to run afoul of the law in Venezuela

 

Brazil, Argentina lead Latin America stocks higher


Original article in MarketWatch

“Over the past few quarters in Brazil, we have seen the emergence of a two-speed economy, with manufacturers, agricultural goods, and industrials suffering from a decline in external demand and increased internal competition from exports,” said Clinton Carter, director for Latin America at Frontier Strategy Group. Even so, “both employment and wages have remained high, so consumer sectors have performed relatively well. he said.

Now, “we see a slightly improved outlook for capital intensive industries, as the cost of capital has fallen with recent interest rate cuts, and a cheaper local currency has improved the competitiveness of domestic manufacturers in the short-run,” he said.

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