What Our Analysts Are Reading – 11/9/2018

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

Alex Schober on “IMF Expands Aid Package for Argentina

“FSG now believes that it is inevitable that the Argentine government’s seal of approval on the IMF deal (i.e. the 2019 budget) will be signed in the next two weeks. This will ensure the government’s commitment to achieving a 0% primary budget balance at the end of 2019. While this is welcome medium-to-long term news for Argentina, it will result in an economic recession in the near-term.

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Josef Jelinek on “Once an Optimist on U.S.-China Relations, Henry Paulson Delivers a Sobering Message”

“American leaders across the political spectrum have unified in the belief that China is now a strategic rival whose rise “has come at America’s expense.” But, while China’s discriminatory behavior indeed demands a response, the notion that the two countries must decouple is misguided. If forced to choose, many Asian countries will choose China, leaving the US potentially isolated.

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athanasia-kokkinogeniAthanasia Kokkinogeni on “UK property market at its weakest for six years, says Rics

“MNCs with clients in the real estate sector experience a drop in UK market conditions, due to Brexit uncertainty. House prices are falling more than expected, and large deals are deferred until the UK government confirms the details of the transitional deal. MNCs should hold the deals in their sales pipelines, because expected progress in negotiations will lift confidence in the sector into 2019.

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Pratima SinghPratima Singh on “India Is the Latest Place for a Government-Central Bank Scrap

“The Modi government is locked in a power struggle with the central bank. The administration is reportedly pressurizing the bank to relax lending criteria and use excess funds to boost economic growth before national elections next year. A focus on short-term wins over long-term economic strength and the absence of an independent central bank is unlikely to inspire investor confidence in India.

Link to article | Read More of Pratima’s CommentaryHave a Question for Pratima?

Matthew KindingerMatthew Kindinger on “Mozambique offers to share gas revenue in ‘tuna bond’ restructuring

“Mozambique has come closer to re-entering international credit markets following a debt-restructuring agreement with some of its creditors. However, public finances remain in a perilous state, and the IMF and donor countries are reluctant to re-engage with the government unless oversight of public finances improves. Therefore, public-sector opportunities for MNCs will remain limited for now.

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