What Our Analysts Are Reading – 10/19/2018

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.


Alex Schober on “Honduras, Guatemala move to stop migrant caravan after Trump threats

“One of FSG’s most notable market disruptions for Central America is a radicalization of immigration policy from the US. President Trump has intensified his rhetoric this morning by threatening to close the border with Mexico and cutting off aid to Honduras and Guatemala. FSG will revise down GDP for Central American markets if aid or remittance flows are interrupted due to US policy.

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Mark McNameeMark McNamee on “The fall in real incomes of Russians accelerated sharply in September

“Since this summer, consumer confidence in Russia has fallen notably in light of the weaker ruble, which is driving up inflation and hurting real incomes. Nominal wage growth is also struggling in light of weaker business sentiment and investment, particularly amid higher interest rates. MNCs need to prepare for higher prices and weaker sentiment at least through H1 next year.

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Ryan Connelly on “Inflation Is Back—and Unilever, Nestlé Are Taking Advantage”

“One of the major themes in our Global Outlook for 2019 is that shifts in the macro environment – including the maturation of the business cycle, rising employment and wages, and rising core inflationary pressures – means that firms should look to lock in higher prices in 2019, as consumers are becoming less price sensitive in many markets.

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athanasia-kokkinogeniAthanasia Kokkinogeni on “Brexit: Theresa May seeks cabinet unity ahead of EU summit

“MNCs should request an analyst consultation on the UK in order to choose the right inputs for their Brexit planning by cutting through the noise. Tomorrow, the EU27 and the UK are meeting to discuss Article 50, and the final details of the transitional deal. FSG believes progress will be made, and the EU is likely to call an extraordinary summit in November to finalize and formalize the deal.

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Danyi YangDanyi Yang on “China Consumer Inflation Accelerates, Factory Prices Slow

“China’s Consumer Price Index showed a year-on-year growth of 2.5% in September from 2.3% in August, while the Producer Price Index only climbed 3.6% compared to the August gain of 4.1%. Companies can expect to see continued monetary and fiscal easing from the Chinese government to boost consumption and investment growth in the next few months, despite a global monetary tightening.

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