What Our Analysts Are Reading – 9/28/2018

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

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Danyi YangDanyi Yang on “China’s latest move shows it’s committed to fighting Trump in the trade war for the long haul, Business Insider

“Following the tariffs cut in July, China has announced its plans to further reduce tariffs on more than 1,500 items in consumer goods and construction materials, effective on November 1. The move comes amid the country’s rising trade tensions with the US and intends to boost domestic consumer spending and business investment. Non-American suppliers are poised to benefit from the tax cut.

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Matthew KindingerMatthew Kindinger on “Nigeria’s Multiple Exchange Rates Are Starting to Look Like Two

“Nigeria’s central bank is moving toward normalizing its system of multiple exchange rates. The “NIFEX”—the rate at which local companies buy dollars—has been allowed to depreciate to close to the “NAFEX” rate, which is the rate used by most MNCs and foreign investors. FSG expects exchange rate reform after elections in February 2019, which will likely simplify access to foreign currency for MNCs.

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Ryan Connelly on “Trump Berates Canada and Threatens Car Tariffs as Nafta Talks Falter “

“The US has promised the EU and Japan that it would not impose further tariffs on them while they negotiate bilateral deals. South Korea opened their market for american auto exports under the new KORUS agreement, while Mexico has agreed to limit the value of autos that it exports into the US. This leaves Canada as the only major auto exporter that would immediately be hit by new auto tariffs.

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athanasia-kokkinogeniAthanasia Kokkinogeni on “​UK immigration: No preference for EU workers after Brexit, cabinet agrees

“MNCs should closely monitor government discussions about the new immigration scheme effective after the end of the transitional deal, and plan for changes in their workforce. The government doesn’t consider offering preferential access for EU citizens after Brexit, and a points-based migration system is likely to apply to both EU and non-EU migrants, in favor of skilled labor.

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Adam Jarczyk

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Alex Schober on “In July, Argentina’s economic activity contracted by 2.7% because of industrial production and retail activity

“Argentina’s economy will continue to contract through the end of 2018 and likely in the first few months of 2019. A large rebound in agricultural production at the end of 2018 will allow Argentina to begin the climb out of the economic recession. However, private consumption will continue to suffer until inflation begins to decelerate significantly.

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