What Our Analysts Are Reading – 9/21/2018

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

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Matthew KindingerMatthew Kindinger on “Nigeria’s Zainab Ahmed Formally Appointed Finance Minister

“Nigeria has a new finance minister. Zainab Ahmed will replace Femi Adesina, who was credited with improving the management and oversight of public finances. No significant changes to the direction of fiscal policy are expected under Ahmed, and her budget and planning background means she is likely to continue to support the implementation of the government’s flagship ERGP development plan.

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Pratima SinghPratima Singh on “​Narendra Modi’s move to stem Indian rupee’s slide may not help

“The government recently implemented a series of measures to strengthen the rupee. The measures focus primarily on increasing the inflow of dollars in the short term and could exacerbate companies’ exposure to exchange rate volatility in the future. The administration is also considering imposing restrictions on “non-essential” imports, which will likely raise costs for MNCs importing into India.

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Ryan Connelly on “Latest U.S. Tariffs Could Make Auto Parts Pricier”

“The US-China trade war is not expected to lead to a significant decrease in US economic growth in 2018-2019. It will eat into corporate profit margins for firms that rely on Chinese imports. But this also creates an opportunity for B2B firms with to take market share from Chinese exporters.

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Danyi YangDanyi Yang on “China premier says yuan not a weapon in trade row as economic ‘cold war’ looms

“Following the announcement to impose tariffs on $60 billion worth of US imports, Premier Li signaled that China would not engage in “competitive devaluation” to offset the effects of US tariffs on Chinese imports. MNCs should expect the government to continue a balancing act in setting FX rates as an effort to manage additional US tariffs and capital flight issues at the same time.

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Alex Schober on “Argentina’s GDP shrinks 4.2 pct in 2nd quarter

“Argentina’s official GDP numbers have begun to show the negative effects of May’s peso crash and the country’s devastating drought. FSG expects Argentina’s economy to contract -2.0% in 2018 in its most recent forecast, with economic activity likely to remain in contraction up until Q1 2019 at the very earliest, as interest rates and inflation remain high.

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