What Our Analysts Are Reading – 8/3/2018

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

Danyi Yang

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Alex Schober on “Escondida Union Plans Monthlong Strike in Battle With BHP

“MNCs should expect a short-term, mild slowdown in economic activity in Chile if the main trade union of La Escondida (the world’s largest copper mine) decides to go on strike. FSG previously identified potential mining labor conflicts as the main disruption to Chile’s economy in 2018.

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JosefJosef Jelinek on “​Chinese PMI: China reports official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for July

“China’s economy is starting to feel the impact of US tariffs against it as manufacturing PMI came in slightly lower than expected in July. The impact thus far on China’s producers has been softened as US importers have been bringing forward their demand for Chinese goods before the tariffs are implemented. As we move closer to 2019, demand should start to soften as the tariffs come into force.

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Mark McNamee

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Ryan Connelly on “China Says Stop the Blackmail After U.S. Steps Up Tariff Threats”

“The Trump Administration’s strong-armed negotiating tactics are not working so far. But its stance against China continues to be bellicose heading into the November midterm elections, as the ‘tough on China’ stance is broadly popular across US political society. We continue to expect that this is just the beginning of a long-term change in the status quo of the US-China business environment.

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Pratima SinghPratima Singh on “Pakistan set to seek up to $12bn IMF bailout

“As Khan prepares to lead a coalition government and take oath as PM, the Pakistan economy faces yet another balance of payments crisis. A weak economy will limit his ability to fulfill campaign promises, which include alleviating poverty and creating an Islamic welfare state. International financial support and funding is inevitable, whether it comes from the IMF, China, or Saudi Arabia.

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William Attwell on “South Africa to amend constitution to allow land expropriation

“The ruling party’s decision to push ahead with a constitution change allowing expropriation of property without compensation will exacerbate doubts about President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ability manage the populist wing of the party and turn around the flagging economy. MNCs should expect some weakening of the rand, and potentially lower investment levels, in the coming months.”

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2 thoughts on “What Our Analysts Are Reading – 8/3/2018

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