What Our Analysts Are Reading – 7/27/2018

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

Danyi Yang

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Alex Schober on “Argentina’s economy showed a strong contraction in May of almost 6% YOY

“A combination of the worst drought in decades and May’s peso crash explain Argentina’s significant economic contraction in May. In particular, agricultural activity plummeted 35.2%. Multinationals should expect a contraction in Q2 overall, even though FSG does not forecast a recession in 2018’s annualized growth. That assumes a gradual restoration of market confidence as the year progresses.

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JosefJosef Jelinek on “​Hasbro leaving China to avoid Donald Trump’s trade war

The announcement by Hasbro that it plans to move the bulk of its China production out of that country to get out from under President Trump’s trade war could well be a harbinger of future such announcements by other MNCs as these face stiffer tariffs at the US border and worry about China’s potential to retaliate by disrupting their supply chains and production lines.”

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Ryan Connelly on “Trump Administration Plans Up to $12 Billion in Farm Aid to Ease Concerns Over Trade Disputes”

“To shore up political support for his trade policies amidst retaliatory tariffs that targeted US agriculture, the Trump Administration plans to spend $12bn on agricultural support. This will add to the 2018 deficit, but not substantially, as the deficit was already expected to run $804bn in 2018, a large increase from 2017 due mainly to lost revenue from the tax cuts.

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Pratima SinghPratima Singh on “Pakistan’s Imran Khan leads polls as rivals cry foul

“The army-backed PTI party takes the lead in early polls as counting begins in a controversial Pakistan election. The Shahbaz Sharif-led PML-N and the Bilawal Bhutto Zardari-led PPP claim that electoral irregularities and delays in counting votes are signs of election fraud. Even though voting is over, and results will be announced soon, executives should expect continued instability in Pakistan.

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William Attwell on “Official opening of the 10th annual Brics Leaders’ Summit in South Africa

“The leaders of the BRICS will at this year’s BRICS summit be joined by Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, where they will focus on large emerging markets’ (EM) growing role in SSA. Expect the summit to lay the political groundwork for more investment by EM companies, portending more competition for Western MNCs. Already, China has pledged US$ 2.5 billion for power projects in South Africa.”

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