What Our Analysts Are Reading – 7/20/2018

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

Danyi Yang

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Alex Schober on “Reduction of Argentina’s fiscal deficit accelerates and the government is on its way to meeting its annual target with the IMF

“The Argentine government has now met or exceeded its primary deficit targets for six straight semesters, an encouraging sign for meeting IMF fiscal targets. MNCs should continue to monitor fiscal data and 2019 budget discussions. In the meantime, this is a positive step toward re-establishing credibility with markets, which will be crucial to avoid major currency volatility going forward.

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JosefJosef Jelinek on “​Trump ‘Ready to Go to’ $500 Billion on China Tariffs

“Trump’s announcement that he is ready to go all in on raising tariffs against China increases the risk that China will retaliate. While China can’t match the US dollar-for-dollar, it can impose a higher tax rate than the 10% imposed by the US side. In addition, it can also make life increasingly uncomfortable for US firms in the form of regulatory harassment and consumer boycotts.

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Athanasia Kokkinogeni on “May warns rebels – Back me or risk ‘no Brexit at all'”

“MNCs should continue to monitor tensions between PM Theresa May and Conservative party Brexiteers over her Brexit strategy. A no-confidence vote remains unlikely for now, because there is no clear successor in the Tory party to deliver Brexit, and the risk of no-deal still looms.

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Pratima SinghPratima Singh on “Pakistan Lets Rupee Devalue as Finances Wobble Before Election

“Pakistan faces heightened political and economic uncertainty as it holds national elections next week. The State Bank of Pakistan has been devaluing the rupee in an attempt to manage its forex reserves. However, a widening current account deficit, weaker growth prospects, and an increasing fiscal deficit are increasing the likelihood of the country seeking support from the IMF again.

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William Attwell on “Kenya’s indebtedness to China may evolve into national security threat

“Kenya’s burgeoning public debt is in large part the result of its numerous Chinese-funded and built transport and energy infrastructure projects. There is a growing sense, however, that this model is unsustainable and does not deliver adequate local benefits. This is creating openings for Western MNCs to deliver public sector projects, especially when they’re positioned as creating ‘mutual value’.”

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