What Our Analysts Are Reading – 7/13/2018

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

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Alex Schober on “The Argentine peso continues to appreciate and has situated below ARS/USD 28

“FSG anticipates that peso will likely stay within the range of ARS/USD 27-29 in the next few months, mildly reducing fears of FX uncertainty. Measures to clarify monetary policy increased ARS demand. However, this comes at a cost: MNCs should expect an extraordinarily high benchmark policy rates to continue, increasing borrowing costs and suppressing overall economic activity.

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JosefJosef Jelinek on “​Trade war impact could extend to other Asian nations

The indirect impact to APAC economies in a Sino-US trade war is far-reaching. Trade will be disrupted, firms with FDI in China will be hit, the price and flow of credit will be hurt, businesses will be reluctant to invest, and any tariff pass-through to consumers will affect domestic demand and consumer confidence, leading to higher volatility in financial markets and a nasty feedback loop.

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Athanasia Kokkinogeni on “UK publishes Brexit white paper”

“The UK government published today as expected the White Paper on the future trade relationship between the UK and the EU. In line with FSG’s base case view published in March, the UK proposes an enhanced FTA agreement with a facilitated customs agreement and regulatory alignment with the EU. MNCs should accelerate their contingency plans on the base case and downside (no-deal).

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Pratima SinghPratima Singh on “RBI says fiscal position of Indian states is under pressure again

“Several states are struggling with an increased fiscal deficit due to higher spending before national elections. In the north, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, and Punjab have weak financial positions, while in the south the focus is on Telangana, Kerala, and Karnataka. Increased fiscal pressures will limit these states’ abilities to invest in important public services such as healthcare and education.

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William Attwell on “Uganda to protect legislators with military, armoured trucks

“The government’s decision to use military escorts to protect legislators comes amid rising violence and infighting in the security services. In June, the police chief was arrested for plotting against the president, according to local reports. For now, the business impact has been minimal, though MNCs should ensure close communication with local partners in case the situation deteriorates.”

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