What Our Analysts Are Reading – 6/29/2018

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

Antonio Martinez

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Alex Schober on “Argentina’s economy already began to contract in April, according to Indec

“FSG expected that Argentina’s economy would begin to contract in Q2 2018 because of the drought which caused the country’s soybean crop to fall approximately 30% YOY. Argentina’s economic activity contracted 0.9% YOY and 2.7% MOM, accordingly, almost entirely due to a 30.8% YOY contraction in agricultural activity. Every other sector, besides transportation, expanded in annualized terms.

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Dalia Naguib on “​Iran bans 1,300 imports as protesters, police clash over currency weakness

“MNCs still able to legally operate in Iran after the US reinstates nuclear sanctions face several challenges to their operations. Import bans and currency depreciation will lead to a rise in inflation and dampened demand. MNCs should also prepare contingency plans for other types of import restrictions like quotas, restrictions on access to FX, or higher tariffs.”

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Athanasia Kokkinogeni on “Merkel’s Bavarian ally threatens mutiny on migrants”

“MNCs should expect the migrant crisis to continue, and Chancellor Merkel’s coalition government to be under increased pressure to harden its migration policy. Merkel’s Bavarian sister party has threatened to refuse to back Merkel’s migration policy, and has increased pressure on Merkel to reform her migration policy ahead of the June EU summit.

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Pratima SinghPratima Singh on “Indian rupee weakens to record low against dollar

“The rupee fell to its lowest level against the dollar on Thursday. A widening current account deficit, exacerbated by high oil prices, and trade tensions across the region have put pressure on the Indian currency. MNCs importing into the market should expect to face higher costs and shrinking margins due to a weakening rupee, and should urgently focus on cutting cost inefficiencies in the market.

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William Attwell on “Zimbabwe’s Mnangagwa blames Grace Mugabe faction for blast

“An explosion at a ruling party rally appears to be an (unsuccessful) attempt to assassinate President Emmerson Mnangagwa ahead of next month’s election. The incident is an anomaly in what otherwise has been a peaceful campaign. Destabilizing violence in the coming weeks is unlikely, and Mnangagwa – who will likely win – has emphasized that MNCs should not be concerned about the security situation.”

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