What Our Analysts Are Reading – 6/22/2018

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

Danyi Yang

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Alex Schober on “Argentina’s GDP grew by 3.6% YOY in the first quarter

“Argentina’s economy grew by 3.6% YOY in Q1 2018, which was largely expected. FSG expects economic growth to decelerate in the second and third quarters as negative effects from the drought and the peso crash become apparent. Multinationals should expect reduced demand in the next few months and should consider rolling out attractive financing schemes in the short term to entice final consumers.

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Ryan Connelly on “​Daimler warning on tariffs hits shares of European carmakers

“The US-China tariffs, which have bipartisan support in Congress, are unlikely to be reversed in the near future. This article highlights the challenges that even non-US MNCs face when exporting into China, due to the design of their current supply chains. We encourage executives to build supply chain resilience by shortening supply chains, steering incremental investment closer to end-markets.”

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Matthew Kindinger

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Athanasia Kokkinogeni on “Greece facing post-bailout challenges”

The Greek economy is at a turning point, with eurozone finance ministers discussing potential debt relief for Greece during the Eurogroup. Greece has completed the 88 reforms, the so-called prior actions, and is likely to extend maturity and grace period of loans. This development will increase mid-term optimism for the market, and MNCs should expect a gradual stabilization of the economy by 2021.”

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Pratima SinghPratima Singh on “India responds to US tariffs with equivalent duties of its own

“India is the latest country to announce retaliatory tariffs on US products imported into the country. The new tariffs, which target high-end motorcycles, shrimps, almonds, industrial machinery, and chemicals, are expected to take effect as early as June 21. Executives should evaluate how escalating trade tensions will impact their import costs and regional supply chains.

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Alec LeeAlec Lee on “Interference by Brazil’s Supreme Federal Tribunal in electoral matters should be rare, says next court President Toffoli

“This statement further supports the view that former president Lula will ultimately be ineligible to participate in Brazil’s October election (Lula’s participation through court intervention in September continues to represent the largest downside risk for growth in the Brazil market beyond 2019).”

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