What Our Analysts Are Reading – 6/15/2018

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

Danyi Yang

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Alex Schober on “Surprise: Argentina’s inflation in May was 2.1%, in a month that was affected by peso depreciation

“Argentina’s monthly inflation number was at least 60 basis points lower than expected, which plays into FSG’s hypothesis of inflation beginning to decelerate in the second half of the year. FSG believes that inflation will end the year at 24.5%, slightly lower than 2018. However, they key will be the central bank’s ability to contain the depreciation of the peso.

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Joel Whitaker on “​Trump-Kim Summit Creates New Anxieties for Asian Allies

“FSG featured “RIP Pax Americana” as a low-likelihood downside scenario in our global Events to Watch for 2017. Trump’s assertion that US withdrawal from East Asia is a benefit of a deal with Kim, rather than a concession, signals a resurgence of that scenario, in which Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines would divert government spending from economic investment to military buildup.”

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Athanasia Kokkinogeni on “Brexit: MPs reject bid to stay in EEA amid Labour revolt”

“MNCs should continue to prepare for a Free Trade Agreement between the EU-UK, with a bespoke customs union arrangement by 2022. MPs are currently debating the Lords’ amendments on the Brexit Bill in the House of Commons. MPs have rejected the bid for the UK to stay in the European Economic Area (Norway model), and PM May will negotiate with Brussels a temporary customs union until December 2021.”

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Adam JarczykAdam Jarczyk on “Trump-Kim summit: Full text of joint statement of Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un

Despite being lauded as an “epochal event of great significance,” today’s summit here in Singapore yielded little. The joint statement contained nothing surprising, and nothing was said that can’t be reversed. As a result, we have not changed our view. The main accomplishment from today’s meeting is more meetings: it laid the groundwork for further discussions between US and N Korean officials.”

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Mark McNameeMark McNamee on “Medvedev revealed the parameters of pension reform

“As anticipated following the elections, the government is also raising the pension age to make room in the budget, though this will also likely come with a rise in payments to pensioners. Matched with a likely tax hike, MNCs will get more signalling regarding tax, pension, and spending plans by October when the new fiscal plan is revealed.”

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