What Our Analysts Are Reading – 6/1/2018

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

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Alex Schober on “Argentina’s Congress approved the three law that replaced Macri’s de-bureaucratization decree

“MNCs should watch how the opposition votes in Argentina’s Congress following the peso crash to determine if the opposition is showing signs of unifying against the Macri administration. So far, the opposition is not acting as a complete front against the government. Two examples of this are the approval of the capital markets reform and yesterday’s “mega-decree” aimed at reducing bureaucracy.

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William Attwell on “​Zimbabwe sets first post-Mugabe elections for July 30

“Incumbent Emmerson Mnangagwa is likely to win the presidential vote on July 30, although probably by a slim margin given his opponent Nelson Chamisa’s appeal for Zimbabwe’s large pool of young voters. With the election out of the way, expect reforms and international re-engagement to gather pace, increasing opportunities for MNCs and improving operating conditions.

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Pratima Singh

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Athanasia Kokkinogeni on “Spain’s Mariano Rajoy to face no confidence vote on Friday”

“MNCs should expect ongoing political tensions in Spain, but no effect on economic momentum for 2018. Prime Minister Rajoy will face a vote of no confidence on Friday, after corruption accusations of key members of his party. Opposition isn’t united against Rajoy: the Socialists push for the vote without the support of the centrist Ciudadanos, making the vote unlikely to be successful.”

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Ryan Connelly on “White House Slaps Metal Tariffs on Europe, Canada and Mexico”

“After several months of delays, the US announced it would implement steel and aluminum tariffs on the EU, MX, and Canada this evening. We discussed these tariffs at length in our piece on ‘Trump, Tariffs, and Trade Wars.’ The impact will be felt at the industry level, and will not impact the macro significantly: for Canada, the largest exporter, the loss in exports is less than 2% of 2017 exports.”

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Alejandro Valerio on “In Colombia, Far-Right and Hard-Left Candidates Will Vie for Presidency”

“Iván Duque (right-wing) won Colombia’s first-round on Sunday with 39% of the vote and will face Gustavo Petro (left-wing) in the June 17 runoff. Petro came second with 25% of the vote, narrowly defeating Sergio Fajardo, the centrist candidate. FSG’s base case is that Duque will defeat Petro as Duque should be able to build a broader coalition amid a fragmented electorate.”

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