What Our Analysts Are Reading – 5/25/2018

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

Matthew Kindinger

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Alex Schober on “Negotiations between the IMF and Argentina advance in Washington

“The IMF and Argentina are trying to seal a deal as quickly as possible after the IMF informally approved Argentina’s request for a stand-by agreement (SBA) line of credit last Friday. FSG will advice clients of the details as soon as they become available. At this point, it appears that Argentina will have to lower the primary fiscal deficit to around 2.5% this year, with a heavier cut in 2019.

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Dalia Naguib on “​In first move since FX crackdown, Iran lowers rial vs. dollar

“MNCs that can still legally operate in Iran are facing not only difficulty obtaining lines of credit to sustain operations, but will also face a depreciating rial. The central bank is likely to allow a slow weakening of the currency to balance two priorities – protecting consumers and controlling inflation, and increasing the government’s export revenues in local currency through a weaker FX rate.

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Athanasia Kokkinogeni on “Cost inflation and store closures hit high street retailer”

“MNCs will continue to struggle with their profitability in the UK in 2018, due to an acceleration in their costs and weaker demand for their products. Consolidation of large retail chains is likely to continue, disrupting supply chains and distribution channels. MNCs should leverage FSG’s 2018 UK market spotlight to understand the drivers of their costs and demand for their industry for 2018.”

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Ryan Connelly on “Trump May Impose Tariffs on Foreign Autos”

“Trump has asked the Department of Commerce to begin a section 232 study on whether the US should put trade protections to support the domestic auto industry. With Trump’s trade agenda stalling in both NAFTA and China, the threat of protection for the auto industry both rallies his base while putting additional pressure on ongoing negotiations with NAFTA and the EU.”

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