What Our Analysts Are Reading – 4/6/2018

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

Antonio Martinez

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Danyi YangDanyi Yang on “China moves its factories back to the countryside”

“As one of China’s “three tough battles” to fight, poverty reduction remains a critical policy focus. Not only will lower-tier markets offer long-term demand, they also signal opportunities for low-end manufacturing. MNCs that are evaluating China’s manufacturing competitiveness against the country’s regional or global peers must also consider China’s policy shift to inland and western provinces.

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Mark McNameeMark McNamee on “​U.S. plans to sanction Russian oligarchs this week: sources

“Thus far the Trump administration has been hesitant to impose any sanctions that would harm business and investment, including avoiding the imposition of bans on purchases of Russian bonds. The question remains what type of sanctions and against which oligarchs in order to understand the impact on investment and if this is a tangible step beyond the tit-for-tat sanctions we’ve seen so far.

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Ryan Connelly on “China says it never backs down in the face of threats after trade salvos with U.S.”

“It is likely that the US is using strong-arm tactics to force China to modify its trade policies. If this this the case, then the goal of the USTR is to enter into negotiations, and threatening more protectionist measures than it wants to implement. There are risks to this negotiating strategy. Issues of trade policy can spill over into politics, and events can spiral out of control.”

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Matthew KindingerMatthew Kindinger on “Nigerian senate clears way for central bank’s MPC to meet”

“The Nigerian Senate has approved the appointment of three people to the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which means it can meet for the first time in more than five months. A faster than expected fall in the inflation rate in February also makes a cut to the base rate–which has been held at 14% since July 2016–more likely when the meeting takes place.”

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JosefJosef Jelinek on “China slaps tariffs on 106 US products, including soy, cars, chemicals”

“While the world focuses on what looks like a trade war between China and the US, it’s easy to lose sight of what could be the bigger picture-the fight for the future. The Made in China 2025 initiative, by fair means or foul, targets ten key sectors of the future that will bestow economic and military strength. The US wants to prevent China Inc from displacing its firms in the race for supremacy.

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