What Our Analysts Are Reading – 4/13/2018

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

Antonio Martinez

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Dalia Naguib on “Iran clamps ceiling on dollar holdings in effort to support rial”

“Iran unified its dual exchange rate system to one rate set to IRR 42,000 per $1. It’s unlikely the central bank can hold the rial at this rate because prior to the reform, the rial was trading at almost 60,000 on the free-market. MNCs should expect further depreciation in the rial, especially as capital outflows increase leading up to Trump’s May 12 decision to keep or nix the nuclear deal.

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Mark McNameeMark McNamee on “​Investors are selling off Russian stocks

“MNCs should monitor further potential ruble weakness both as a result of the escalation of sanctions by the US against Russia but also the implicit threat of further unnamed action by the US as a result of events in Syria over the weekend. The ruble has responded by weakening as foreign demand – which has propped up the ruble over the past year – has dropped for Russian stocks and bonds.

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Ryan Connelly on “Trump Looks to Assuage Trade Critics With Farm Package”

“One of the issues being debated is whether the US or Chinese political system would be more resilient in a trade war. With China heavily targeting US farmers, the US is preparing the tools necessary to support agricultural prices. This limits the impact on US agricultural producers and consumers, shifting the cost of Chinese retaliatory tariffs onto the Government.”

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William Attwell on “Zimbabwe invites West to observe vote for first time since 2002”

“The government’s decision to invite Western countries to observe the July vote sends a strong signal that President Mnangagwa intends to break with his predecessor’s authoritarian tactics. Providing the election is largely free and fair, MNCs should expect donors to offer support from H2, buoying Zimbabwe’s prospects.”

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