After signing a controversial peace accord to end a 53-year conflict with the FARC in 2016, Colombia is heading into the most consequential elections in its modern history. Congressional elections on March 11th will determine whether Congress will be fragmented again, making it harder for the next administration to pass the economic reforms needed to improve Colombia’s business environment. The presidential election on May 27th —likely to go to a runoff on June 17th —will decide whether the next administration will focus on tackling the economic challenges and continuing the implementation of the peace accord, or if it will revise the accord, with unknown consequences. The results will greatly influence Colombia’s economic performance and business opportunities in the years to come.
Given this situation, do you know what your next steps should be? Does your business have contingency plans in place? Government policy is going to change significantly regardless of the election results, therefore multinational corporate executives in Colombia need to plan for a new business environment over the next two years. Structural problems in the country’s economy, issues of oil dependency, and political uncertainty demand that you:
- Re-evaluate whether to reposition major investments in Colombia
- Make sure you are properly resourcing your government access team to engage with the upcoming transition.
“Colombia’s new political landscape resulting from both congress and presidential elections this year will greatly influence the country’s economic fate,” said Alejandro Valerio, Senior Analyst, Andean Region at Frontier Strategy Group and author of this report. “Multinationals should pay attention to the interplay between party dynamics in a new congress and the new president’s executive power to assess the level of political stability in Colombia over the next four years. Successfully maintaining corporate buy-in and support for Colombia operations requires ensuring that you can react quickly and effectively to changing market conditions.”
Frontier Strategy Group’s flagship Ahead of the Curve report on Colombia Election Scenarios identifies six challenges for the new government, together with their implications for the business environment. Furthermore, it provides three Congressional and Presidential election scenarios with drivers and signposts to monitor. It then maps these scenarios to the challenges, offering key actions Colombian executives should consider for strategic planning, distribution management and market prioritization.
This report, and many other like it, is available for purchase on the Frontier Strategy Group Online store. Contact us for sample pages to help you evaluate whether the report is right for you.