What Our Analysts Are Reading: 3/9/2018

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

Danyi Yang

“Despite Pyongyang’s concession in talks with the US about abandoning its nuclear weapons, there will still be a long way to go before North Korea’s denuclearization. A more important development for businesses to watch is a hotline to be installed for the first time by which the two Korean leaders can talk on the phone directly before the April Summit.

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Alex Schober on “Argentine Provinces have begun to lower turnover taxes (ingresos brutos) to different sectors”

“MNCs commonly complain that the main source of Argentina’s tax burden lies in turnover taxes (ingresos brutos), which differ by province and sometimes by municipality. The fiscal pact signed in December 2017 between the federal government and provinces promised to lower these turnover taxes. MNCs should see this as a positive first step on a long journey to lower taxes in Argentina.”

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Martin Belchev on “POLL – Fidesz maintains commanding lead after recent defeat in Hódmezővásárhely”

“Despite the recent unexpected local election loss in Hódmezővásárhely, the ruling Fidezs party is commanding a significant lead in Hungary’s upcoming elections, with a recent poll indicating a 52% public support. This confirms the view of the FSG that Victor Orban will be elected for a third consecutive term and his government will continue to pursue loose fiscal and monetary policies.

Link to article | Read More of Martin’s CommentaryHave a Question for Martin?


“MNCs will see improved market conditions in Germany with the renewal of grand coalition and reappointment of Angela Merkel as German Chancellor. The Socialists voted for a next term with CDU/CSU in the government. Merkel made the necessary concessions, giving the ministry of finance and foreign affairs to the Socialists. For MNCs, this signals stronger spending and faster EU integration.”

Link to article | Read More of Athanasia’s CommentaryHave a Question for Athanasia?

Ryan Connelly on “GOP Lawmakers Sign Letter Objecting to Trump’s Steel, Aluminum Tariffs”

“The EU has already issued a list of retaliatory measures, on products ranging from bourbon to cranberries, if Trump follows through with plans to put tariffs on EU steel and aluminum exports. China is unlikely to retaliate to these particular tariffs, as they are not heavily impacted. It is not at all clear at this point if Trump is considering exemptions for Canada, Mexico, or the EU.”

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Dalia Naguib on “Iran bans use of US dollar in trade”

“MNCs operating in Iran with an OFAC license may face complications importing their products with the new ban on purchase orders priced in US dollars. MNCs should work closely with their local partners to ensure correct documentation is used in order to continue their Iran operations, though large disruptions are unlikely because of Iranian trade’s low exposure to the US dollar.”

Link to article | Read More of Dalia’s CommentaryHave a Question for Dalia?

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