What Our Analysts Are Reading – 2/2/2018

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.


Dalia Naguib on “Algeria import restrictions: drugs are no longer affected”

“Importers of pharmaceuticals no longer have to cover 120% of import operations costs prior to receiving goods. For MNCs that import pharma products, this measure will ease pressure on their distributors’ finances and improve their cash flows.”

Link to article | Read More of Dalia’s CommentaryHave a Question for Dalia?


Zeynep Kosereisoglu on “32.4 mln foreigners visit Turkey in 2017: Tourism Ministry”

“Tourist arrivals increased 28% YOY in 2017, after contracting 30% YOY in 2016. Barring any major security incidents, tourist arrivals should continue to recover in 2018. However, tailoring marketing strategies to changing tourist profiles will be critical; arrivals from Russia more than doubled, from Asia and the Middle East increased 43% YOY, while those from Europe declined 1% YOY in 2017.”

Link to article | Read More of Zeynep’s CommentaryHave a Question for Zeynep?


JosefJosef Jelinek on “Exclusive: China to name Harvard-trained Liu He as vice premier overseeing economy”

“Liu He now looks set to become the most powerful vice premier since Zhu Rongji in 1993-1998. Supply-Side Structural Reform (SSSR), his brainchild, has been the dominant economic policy paradigm for the past two years. His promotion signals that the economic policies we have seen over the past two years – a focus on deleveraging, environmental protection, and capacity cuts – are set to continue.”

Link to article | Read More of Josef’s CommentaryHave a Question for Josef?


Ryan Connelly on “Trump’s ‘Money-Free Infrastructure’ Plan”

“In the most highly publicized presidential address of the year, Trump made few comments on policy. The only significant announcement was plans to pursue a $1.5tn infrastructure plan, something that Trump talked a lot about back in 2016. The plan proposes only $200bn in federal funding, with the remainder provided by states – which have no obligation to participate, and most will not.”

Link to article Read More of Ryan’s Commentary | Have a Question for Ryan?


Martin Belchev on “Hungary Rejects Macron’s ‘Arrogance’ as EU Reform-Fight Looms”

“The European Parliament is mulling the option to recommend the suspension of Hungary’s voting rights in the EU in a move that echos the earlier move against the Polish government. The EU is also considering penalising Poland and Hungary during the next EU funding round, starting 2020. Such a decision, however, requires unanimity and so far remains unlikely.”

Link to article | Read More of Martin’s CommentaryHave a Question for Martin?


Alex Schober on “Mercosur and the EU iron out differences and are getting closer to a deal”

“Foreign ministers from the EU and Mercosur hope to reach a final free-trade agreement at the end of February, after years of delay. A key turning point happened yesterday when the EU decided to increase the import quota of meat from Mercosur, which was Mercosur’s last contentious item to negotiate. Considering the rest of the negotiations are relatively minor, FSG expects a deal in H1 2018.”

Link to article | Read More of Alex’s Commentary | Have a Question for Alex?


Danyi YangDanyi Yang on “Chinese provinces with GDP of six Australias cut 2018 growth targets”

“17 Chinese provinces have cut their 2018 growth targets as the country shifts economic focus away from heavily-polluting industries and risky lending. With a few provinces recently admitting the overstatement of numbers, concerns over the credibility of China’s economic statistics also continue to grow. Check out FSG’s cheating-discrepancy-adjusted provincial data for China at FrontierView.”

Link to article | Read More of Danyi’s Commentary | Have a Question for Danyi?

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