What Our Analysts Are Reading – 2/16/2018

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.


“MNCs should stay ahead of the German coalition developments, which will determine policy making. Chancellor Merkel’s CDU and Martin Schulz agreed on a grand coalition deal. The Socialist party will vote on this deal on February 20 for the new government to be in power before Easter. Merkel’s considerable concessions to SPD to lead the finance and foreign affairs ministry signals increased spending.”

Link to article | Read More of Athanasia’s CommentaryHave a Question for Athanasia?

Joel Whitaker on “3 Emerging Market Risks Companies Should Watch for in 2018”

“Our latest HBR article highlights three emerging-market risks that top multinational leaders should track in 2018 (beyond our Global Events to Watch): 1. The election of populists in Brazil and Mexico increasing the cost of doing business 2. Conflict in the Middle East or Africa renewing the migrant crisis in Europe 3. Maritime confrontation between China and its neighbors disrupting trade routes.”

Link to article | Read More of Joel’s CommentaryHave a Question for Joel?

Dalia Naguib on “Tunisian central bank governor resigns on prime minister’s request”

“MNCs should closely monitor the appointment of a new central bank governor in Tunisia and the ensuing monetary policy. With Tunisia’s currency under severe pressure, a new governor may decide to accelerate depreciation in the dinar, resulting in rising costs and dampened demand for MNCs.”

Link to article | Read More of Dalia’s CommentaryHave a Question for Dalia?

Ryan Connelly on “A Long Era of Low Health Care Inflation May Be Coming to End”

“Health Care costs are a large percentage of both Government and Consumer spending. In the US, historically, health care costs have risen faster than overall costs. After a period of low health care inflation that followed the passage of the Affordable Care Act, there are signs that health care inflation may be back on the horizon.”

Link to article Read More of Ryan’s Commentary | Have a Question for Ryan?

Matthew KindingerMatthew Kindinger on “Nigeria Rate-Cut Hope Dims as Fuel Dearth Keeps Inflation Sticky”

“The Central Bank of Nigeria has dashed hopes of a cut to its base rate because of stubbornly high inflation. Although the inflation rate fell in January, at 15.1% YOY it remains stubbornly high, caused partly by a scarcity of fuel in some parts of the country which is driving up prices. MNCs should be prepared to support local partners facing high borrowing costs in the coming months.”

Link to article | Read More of Matthew’s CommentaryHave a Question for Matthew?

Alex Schober on “The Bicameral Commission of Argentina’s Congress approved congressional debate of Macri’s ‘mega decree'”

“Argentina’s congress will vote on Mauricio Macri’s de-bureaucratizing “mega decree” (in the form of three laws) starting on March 1. FSG expects the laws to pass because debating these measures in congress – instead of by decree – was a compromise made with opposition legislators for their support. Otherwise, the decree might have been declared unconstitutional in commission.”

Link to article | Read More of Alex’s Commentary | Have a Question for Alex?

William Attwell on “ANC Abandons Zuma as Ramaphosa Poised to Lead South Africa”

“The ruling African National Congress’s secretary general says its decision to remove President Zuma from office is “final”, making it likely that he will be replaced by Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa within days. Expect sentiment to improve in the coming months, buoying investment.”

Link to article | Read More of William’s Commentary | Have a Question for William?

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