What Our Analysts Are Reading – 12/1/2017

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

Joel Whitaker on “North Korea launches ballistic missile into Sea of Japan”

“Yesterday’s North Korean test of a missile that can target nuclear weapons across the mainland US is a blunt reminder to MNCs of security risks after a months-long launch lull. Today we have posted an updated summary of our Korean Conflict “event to watch for 2018″ on FSG’s blog. We believe that the US and China can steer clear of crisis, but rate the likelihood of conflict at 25%.”

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Danyi Yang

Danyi Yang on “US seeks to deny China market economy status in WTO”

“The Trump administration is seeking to oppose China’s efforts in obtaining the market economy status in the World Trade Organization, in an attempt to ramp up trade pressure on China. With the globalization backtracking of the US, MNCs will begin to see China play a greater role in driving global trade, but it will take time before the alleged unfair trade practices are addressed.”

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Alec Lee

Alec Lee on “Brazil Growth Improves In Q3”

“Brazil’s economy showed growth for a third straight quarter. Importantly, growth was driven by both a sustained expansion in private consumption, as well as the first positive growth figure for investment in 16 quarters.”

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Ryan Connelly on “Trump nominates Fed critic to board”

“Marvin Goodfriend has been nominated to one of the open seats at the Federal Reserve Board. Goodfriend is a respected monetary economist that will become an influential voice in the fed monetary policy process. His economic ideas views are somewhat more conservative than those held by Ben Bernanke or Janet Yellen, and this could lead to a somewhat faster program of Fed monetary policy tightening.”

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Zeynep Kosereisoglu on “OPEC Is Said to Agree on Oil-Cuts Extension to End of 2018”

“Russia is likely to join OPEC’s decision to extend the production cut deal throughout 2018. The extension will support oil prices next year. However, the rise in US shale production and the risk of over supply when the deal is no longer extended, put pressure on oil prices beyond 2018.”

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Alex Schober on “Argentina’s Senate approves pension reform and fiscal responsibility law”

“Argentina’s senate approved three important elements of Macri’s economic reform agenda last night: the provincial fiscal pact, the fiscal responsibility law, and the pension reform. The first two passed by wide majority while the pension reform was more contested. Now they must be approved by the Chamber of Deputies. The fiscal reforms are very likely to pass, while pension will be more difficult.”

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Martin Belchev on “Poland’s New Pitch to Brexiting Bankers: Pay Higher Taxes”

“The lower house of parliament has approved a bill that removes the cap on social security contributions, which are paid by both the employee and the employer. This move will not have a profound effect on consumers, yet it will make the market less attractive to invest in when it comes to some sectors, such as financial services and R&D, and may deter the creation of high-skilled jobs.”

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