What Our Analysts Are Reading – 11/24/2017

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

Antonio MartinezAntonio Martinez on “Under Trump, U.S. Companies Face a Rough Road on Trade”

“The U.S. exit from the Trans-Pacific Partnership has led the other countries still trying to push through the trade agreement to strip out the concessions made to the United States. The U.S. will be hard-pressed to force Canada and Mexico to accept inclusion of these measures, including those on biologics, without U.S. concessions that the Trump administration is unlikely to accept.”

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Athanasia Kokkinogeni on “Spain ‘ready to discuss’ greater fiscal autonomy for Catalonia”

“In line with FSG expectations, the pressure ahead of the December 21 Catalan elections seems to be driving reconciliation between Catalonia and Madrid. Spain is more willing to start negotiations for Catalonia’s increased fiscal autonomy, fearing economic and political disruption in Spain, a key top-performing market within MNCs WEUR portfolio.”

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Dalia Naguib on “Lebanon tension spurs questions over Middle East currency pegs”

“Lebanon’s pegged currency is likely to remain stable in the short-term. However, investors should monitor for a potential downside risk in which intensified economic sanctions and isolation imposed on Lebanon by the Gulf states drains the country’s foreign reserves, putting great pressure on Lebanon to break its peg.”

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Ryan Connelly on “Yellen to Leave Fed Board When New Central Bank Chief Takes Over”

“Fed Chair Janet Yellen announced that she will leave the Fed when Jerome Powell replaces her in February. This was a possibility discussed in a FSG blog post from earlier in November, “Powell Fed: Safe choice, but watch for future fed appointments.” Future appointments need to be followed closely, since they may shift the US monetary policy outlook.”

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Alex Schober on “Frente Amplio will define its position for Chile’s presidential second round on November 30”

“The kingmaker for the second round of Chile’s presidential elections will be the leftist coalition Frente Amplio (FA). Their candidate, Beatriz Sanchez, received 20% of the vote on Sunday. This means that Alejandro Guillier could, in theory, defeat Sebastian Pinera with strong support from FA. Unless FA gives full support to Guillier, FSG believes that Pinera will likely win the presidency.”

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