What Our Analysts Are Reading – 11/17/2017

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

Joel Whitaker on “Canada leans on Mexico to ease TPP pressure from Japan, Australia”

“The Trump administration continues to cast a shadow over TPP negotiations indirectly, as touchy NAFTA negotiations led Canada and Mexico to derail the TPP-11 agreement that Japan and Australia were pushing for at last week’s APEC Summit. FSG rates the likelihood of a new NAFTA deal in 2018 at 25% in our new Events to Watch report.”

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Alex Schober on “Argentine government agrees with the CGT on the labor reform, and it will be sent to the Senate tomorrow “

“The Argentine government finally came to an agreement with the main labor union, the CGT, today. This means that the government’s hopes of signing the reform into law by the end of the year appear more likely. With the CGT’s approval, opposition governors will be less likely to pressure their province’s congressmen to vote against the measure.”

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Zeynep Kosereisoglu on “Saudi Arabia to Freeze Trading Accounts as Part of Probe”

“Expansion of the corruption probe and the freezing of trading accounts are increasing risk perceptions amongst businesses in Saudi Arabia. As the number of arrested high level businessmen increases, MNCs should monitor their exposure to disruption via their local customers, suppliers or service providers.”

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Matthew Kindinger

Matthew Kindinger on “Angola’s President Fires Dos Santos’ Daughter as Sonangol Boss”

“Angola’s president João Lourenço has fired Isabel Dos Santos—daughter of former president Eduardo Dos Santos—from her position as head of the national oil company Sonangol. The move indicates that Mr. Lourenço is looking to wrest political power from the Dos Santos family and consolidate his own position. It also suggests that more ambitious economic policy reform could lie ahead.”

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Pratima SinghPratima Singh on “GST: Tax aftershock creates widening two-speed economy in India”

“The GST has created a clear distinction between the formal and informal economy in India. Executives should analyze how reliant they—or their customers—are on India’s cash economy. Interestingly, the tax has also given MNCs a unique opportunity to gain market share from smaller players by acting fast. Read FSG’s report on India Distribution Management to improve profitability amid the transition.”

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Ryan Connelly on “China Could Sell Trump the Brooklyn Bridge”

“US exit from leadership on trade is a negative for MNCs. The US fostered an era of trade that led to a gradual opening of borders to the most competitive international firms. The Chinese approach uses its market power to make trade deals that benefit its own domestic firms in the short term. Together, US protectionism and Chinese selectivism will reduce firm efficiency and the gains from trade.”

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JosefJosef Jelinek on “Japan Extends Economic Growth Streak”

“After a long period of stagnant growth and deflation, Japan’s economy seems to have turned a corner. A global recovery, buoying the country’s exports, has been key to the recovery, helped along by the government’s stimulus program. However, while unemployment levels are at record lows, wages have yet to substantially increase, stifling consumption and inflation.”

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Alejandro Valerio on “Venezuela says debt refinancing under way, S&P calls selective default”

“Venezuela’s debt crisis entered a new terrain on Tuesday when S&P Global Ratings announced that the Andean country was “in selective default.” Maduro’s government is getting ready to restructure Venezuela’s debt in order to avoid a total collapse of the economy. The opposition could gain leverage over Maduro in the negotiation process that aims to put an end to Venezuela’s governance crisis.”

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