What Our Analysts Are Reading – 10/13/2017

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

Antonio MartinezAntonio Martinez on “Battered Dollar Roars Back, Catching Investors by Surprise”

“The recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar is largely based on continued Federal Reserve tightening, which despite uncertainty over the nomination of the next Federal Reserve chairman, is likely to continue through the end of 2018.”

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Danyi YangDanyi Yang on “Big Pharma Gets Boost as China Speeds Up New Drug Approvals”

“With China’s new regulatory move to accelerate the drug registration process, foreign pharmaceutical companies will no longer need to conduct additional tests in the country to launch new products. While MNCs will continue to benefit from China’s rising healthcare demand and eased new drug and medical device approvals, local competition will also intensify as domestic innovation grows.”

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Dalia Naguib on “Decree mandates price tags be on all food products in Egypt”

“Companies producing food products locally and those that package imported food products must print price labels on their products by 31 December. It is also prohibited to deal with un-priced products anywhere down the channel, whether in retail, packaging, or distribution. MNCs must work closely with their local partners to ensure compliance with the regulation and align on price-setting.”

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Alex Schober on “Total surprise: Chile’s CPI fell 0.2% in September”

“Chile’s consumer price index fell -0.2% MOM in September, which was lower than forecasts of a 0.2-0.3% increase. This puts Chile’s yearly inflation at 1.5% in September, far below the Central Bank of Chile’s bottom band of 2%. This last inflation reading may give the bank more impetus to slash rates. FSG predicts that they will do so once more in 2017.”

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Mark McNameeMark McNamee on “Bank of Russia says deflation in September is atypical”

“The continued moderation of price growth is not giving a notable boost to consumer demand but is slowly aiding consumers’ expectations for the market and creating a sentiment of stability and predictability, which over time is boosting consumer confidence. Rising levels of consumer credit are related to this trend as well, encouraging stronger demand in 2018.”

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Ashu Agarwal on “Prayut promises Thai elections in November 2018”

“PM Prayut announced that the next general election will be held in November 2018. Though this reduces uncertainty over election timelines, MNCs should note that the PM has announced and subsequently cancelled the elections multiple times since 2014. More importantly, with the new constitution in place, MNCs can expect the military to maintain significant power even if the election is held in 2018.”

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William Attwell on “Mugabe’s Cabinet reshuffle likely to ‘negatively impact economy’ – expert”

“President Robert Mugabe’s firing of Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa in a government reshuffle on Monday will undermine the government’s attempts to re-access funding from multilateral institutions. Expect foreign current shortages to persist as Zimbabwe’s cash crisis intensifies.”

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