What Our Analysts Are Reading – 10/6/2017

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

Antonio MartinezAntonio Martinez on “Donald Trump’s Fed Choice: Continuity or Disruption”

“President Trump’s choice of Federal Reserve chair (along with his other Fed appointments) will have a significant impact on the near-term direction of U.S. monetary policy. His decision over the next few weeks will indicate whether rates will rise more quickly, or whether the current gradual tightening process will continue in 2018.”

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Adam JarczykAdam Jarczyk on “Inside North Korea, and Feeling the Drums of War”

“Kristof’s account of his recent trip to Pyongyang offers valuable historical perspectives and highlights how hard-liners’ ascendance has changed N Korea’s attitudes towards nuclear war. As this article makes clear, armed conflict in NE Asia is a real risk. Companies would be wise to consider how it would affect their businesses.”

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Athanasia Kokkinogeni on “Positioning for Brexit, France asks finance industry where it can simplify rules”

“MNCs will see cities like Frankfurt, Dublin, Paris, but also Amsterdam, Vienna and Barcelona attracting the relocating financial sector and EU institutions post-Brexit; MNCs should expect strong demand for their products in those markets. Most EU members have expressed an interest to host London-based banks and EU institutions, like the European Banking Authority, and the European Medicine Agency.”

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JosefJosef Jelinek on “Why Chinese Are Diverting Their Consumer Loans to Real Estate”

“China’s households’ share of total bank loans has rapidly increased as policymakers have encouraged banks to boost their lending to retail borrowers. However, rather than increasing levels of consumption, as intended, households have instead been taking on mortgages and short-term loans to purchase property, constraining consumption as income is diverted to service these loans.”

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Mark McNameeMark McNamee on “Bankruptcies on the Rise in Russia”

“Low energy prices are still revealing the structural problems in the economy. Russia’s decision to cut state spending through 2020 is now clearly being felt in business activity, and these issues will continue with the government’s fixation on macroeconomic prudence at the sacrifice of economic growth. Firms should monitor state spending and investment in sectors most related to their business.”

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Ashu Agarwal on “Southeast Asia is world’s hotspot for land disputes: report”

“Southeast Asia has the highest rate of unresolved land disputes resulting in elongated legal battles, delayed projects, and increased costs for companies involved. As governments fail to resolve these challenges, companies should include land dispute risks in their due diligence and consider business models which do not require direct land acquisitions when expanding in the region.”

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