What Our Analysts Are Reading – 9/1/2017

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.


Joel Whitaker on “In Defense of the Dismal Science”

“At FSG we believe that rigorous macroeconomic insight helps leaders make sound, data-driven decisions about their business. Although political debates are increasingly divorced from economic analysis, we find that political risk assessment and economic forecasting are powerful complements. By combining tools we can explain how markets will evolve, while also warning clients of potential surprises.”

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Antonio MartinezAntonio Martinez on “OPEC Keeps Options Open, Including Extending Output Cuts”

“Extending OPEC-Russia production cuts beyond March 2018 will be necessary to avoid a further slide in oil prices next year. Oil prices should stay above US$50 as global demand increases.”

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Alex Shober on “The dollar has fallen more in Chile than any other country in the world in August”

“The Chilean peso (CHP) has appreciated 3.68% against the US dollar in August, the strongest performance of any one currency in the world. This trend is directly due to a surge in copper prices. Copper prices on the London Metals Exchange have risen by over 8% in August alone. MNCs should expect the CHP’s value to either stabilize or continue to strengthen if copper prices remain robust.”

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Matthew KindingerMatthew Kindinger on “Angola elections: Ruling MPLA wins parliamentary vote”

“The ruling MPLA party has returned to power after gaining 61.1% of the country’s legislative elections that were held last week. However, MPLA’s share of the vote fell to 61.1%, which is 10 percentage points lower than it achieved in the 2012 election, and the main opposition party, UNITA, will challenge the result in court, citing irregularities ahead of voting.”

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Alejandro Valerio on “Trump slaps sanctions on Venezuela; Maduro sees effort to force default”

“Newest US sanctions on Maduro’s government will affect Venezuela’s fiscal coffers but not disrupt the oil industry as much as a full-fledged embargo. It is important to monitor how Maduro and the constituent assembly will react in the upcoming days, particularly the latter, which has “supra-powers” to legislate on the Venezuelan economy.”

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