What Our Analysts Are Reading – 7/28/2017

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

Joel Whitaker on “Trump’s ‘Great National Infrastructure Program’? Stalled”

“”US Infrastructure Boom” was a global Event To Watch for 2017 in our pre-inauguration report, but we plan to remove this upside scenario from our list in the next update, as we no longer think there is even a 10% chance of the US government passing a significant public works program.”

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Antonio MartinezAntonio Martinez on “Mexico Suggests Solution to U.S. Trade Deficit: More Cross-Border Commerce”

“The greatest downside risk for multinationals from the NAFTA renegotiation is if Article 19 is eliminated, and rules for import safeguards are loosened, which would offer governments the ability to severely downgrade de-facto trade integration, even if tariff barriers are not increased.”

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Pratima SinghPratima Singh on “Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif resigns over Panama Papers verdict”

“Following his disqualification from office, Sharif’s party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), will appoint an interim prime minister to serve until the general election next year. Executives should revise their targets for the country and undertake contingency planning as political and economic risks increase significantly.”

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William Attwell on “Zimbabwe Opposition Unity Talks Falter”

“The question of whether opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai and prominent politician Joice Mujuru (President Mugabe’s deputy before being fired in 2014) has been on the agenda for some time. However, the two are unlikely to reconcile their differences, making a ruling party win in the 2018 election likely.”

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Danyi YangDanny Yang on “China clamping down on use of VPNs to evade Great Firewall”

“China’s tighter online control remains a key risk for MNCs to watch out for. As the government issues more regulations to enhance cybersecurity and encourage the growth of local tech champions, foreign companies will need to set separate standards for information architecture in China and carefully evaluate the benefits and risks of working with local cloud service providers.”

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Alec LeeAlec Lee on “Brazil’s jobless rate drops to 13.0 pct in quarter through June”

“The most recent employment reading for June, which shows the an average for the last three months, showed Brazil’s labor market gaining 1.3 million jobs when measured against the quarter ending in March -above market expectations-. However, job creation was focused in the informal sector (+442 thousand) and in the public sector (+427 thousand). The formal market remained flat in the period.”

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athanasia-kokkinogeniAthanasia Kokkinogeni on “Frankfurt touts expertise, not pomp, in battle for Brexiting banks”

“MNCs should keep an eye on Frankfurt offering business opportunities, as most of the large London-based banks have already announced their post-Brexit plans for relocation to the German capital. Citigroup has recently joined the U.K.’s Standard Chartered and Japanese bank Nomura, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley relocating some staff from London to Frankfurt by the end of the year.”

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Alex Shober on “Según el INDEC, la economía creció un 3,3% en mayo”

“Economic activity in Argentina grew 3.3% in May YOY thanks to robust construction activity and a recovery in manufacturing. This is the largest such increase since November 2015, signifying that the Argentine economic recovery is gaining traction. FSG still maintains a real GDP growth of 1.9% in 2017.”

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