What Our Analysts Are Reading – 7/14/2017

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

Matthew KindingerMatthew Kindinger on “UPDATE 1-Etisalat to exit Nigeria after regulators intervene”

“Mobile network operator Etisalat has decided to pull out of Nigeria, days after the central bank and regulator stepped in to rescue the company. The Etisalat brand will disappear from Nigeria by the end of July. While this event highlights the operational difficulties that some companies face in Nigeria, the vast majority of MNCs remain committed to the market.”

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Antonio MartinezAntonio Martinez on “Republicans Reluctantly Acknowledge a Failure of Governing”

“The lack of progress on President Trump’s agenda will continue to weigh on FSG’s U.S. growth outlook over the medium term. Without significant fiscal stimulus, it is difficult to foresee the U.S. economy growing above 2% in the coming years.”

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Dalia Naguib on “Tebboune renforce son contrôle sur les licences d’importation”

“Companies that have non-automatically renewing import licenses now must receive approval from Prime Minister Tebboune, rather than the Minister of Trade. This is likely to make renewing import licenses more difficult because of Tebboune’s ultra-protectionist stance and acceleration of import barriers.”

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William Attwell on “South Africa considers privatisation to counter recession”

“The privatization of elements of South Africa’s approximately 300 state-owned enterprises (SOEs) has been on the agenda for some time, but political resistance to the idea means it has made little progress. There is no reason to believe this will change. Moreover, many of the SOEs are in poor financial shape, making it unclear whether they would manage to find interested investors.”

Link to article | Read More of William’s Commentary | Have a Question for William?

Zeynep Kosereisoglu on “Tillerson Sees Qatar Crisis Lingering With Talks Elusive”

“The cautious remarks from US Secretary of State Tillerson should indicate to executives that a rapid resolution to the Qatar crisis isn’t likely. Firms should expect their post-crisis supply routes and personnel re-allocations regarding Qatar to remain in place for the next few months.”

Link to article Read More of Zeynep’s Commentary | Have a Question for Zeynep?

Alec LeeAlec Lee on “Ex-Brazil President Lula Sentenced to Nearly 10 Years for Corruption”

“Though convicted by Judge Moro, Lula will remain eligible to run for the presidency in 2018 until an ultimate conviction at a second level court – FSG expects a decision of Lula’s almost certain appeal to take place in H1 2018. Thus, for the moment, Lula’s potential return will continue to drive uncertainty as to the medium-term outlook for Brazil.”

Link to article Read More of Alec’s Commentary | Have a Question for Alec?

athanasia-kokkinogeniAthanasia Kokkinogeni on “Macron urges greater euro zone convergence, presses Germany to act”

“Merkel has warmed Macron’s initiatives to improve cooperation, but MNCs should consider these plans materializing slowly, as some of these remain unpopular with German voters and members of Merkel’s CDU. Macron plans to promote one eurozone budget, a parliament and a finance minister. He also intends to push for centralized defense and reduce damping (please see our FSG blog for more details).”

Link to article Read More of Athanasia’s Commentary | Have a Question for Athanasia?

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