What Our Analysts Are Reading – 6/23/2017

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

Zeynep Kosereisoglu on “‘Close al-Jazeera’: Saudi Arabia gives Qatar 13 demands to end blockade”

“Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Egypt’s demands from Qatar are unlikely to be met entirely, signalling that the conflict will be difficult to resolve in the immediate term. While the risk of military confrontation is still extremely low, executives should expect the blockade on Qatar to remain in place.”

Link to article | Read More of Zeynep’s Commentary | Have a Question for Zeynep?

William Attwell on “Call to Change South African Central Bank Mandate Dubbed ‘Very Serious Risk'”

“The statement comes after the country’s anti-graft ombudsman called for the central bank’s mandate to be changed from maintaining currency and price stability to facilitating economic growth. While the position is popular with trade unions, it is opposed by the finance minister and other heavyweights in the ruling party and is thus unlikely to result in a policy shift.”

Link to article | Read More of William’s Commentary | Have a Question for William?

Alec LeeAlec Lee on “Janot deve apresentar três denuncias contra Temer”

“While Temer would still appear to have the political support necessary to avoid being removed from office, key coalition partners will need to be careful in openly voting to support a highly unpopular president within 18 months of the next electoral cycle. Despite the continued political uncertainty, FSG’s base case remains for pension reform to pass by Q1 2018.”

Link to article | Read More of Alec’s Commentary | Have a Question for Alec?

Danyi YangDanyi Yang on “S&P unconcerned by Malaysia election and corruption uncertainty”

“Malaysia’s economy is set to continue its steady growth momentum in 2017 after the GDP growth reached a 2-year high in Q1. However, MNCs will need to watch out for the upcoming parliamentary elections, which will take place by August 2018 at the latest, as well as the impact of depressed global energy prices.”

Link to article |Read More of Danyi’s Commentary | Have a Question for Danyi?

Matthew KindingerMatthew Kindinger on “UPDATE 1-IMF approves $224.8 mln in extra credit for Ivory Coast”

“The IMF has approved an extra US$224.8 million in credit for the Ivorian government, providing it with some extra fiscal space. The government was forced to slash its 2017 investment budget in May this year owing to a combination of declining revenues from lower cocoa prices, and rising demands for wage increases from members of the armed forces and civil servants.”

Link to article Read More of Matthew’s Commentary | Have a Question for Matthew?

athanasia-kokkinogeniAthanasia Kokkinogeni on “Euro’s Outlook Brightens as Germany Fills Void”

“MNCs should closely monitor the Q4 post-election decisions of Chancellor Angela Merkel, which could shape an upside for Western Europe in 2018. A further increase in government spending and in EU-wide investment, ease of austerity for Italy and Greece, and more EU cooperation could strengthen investors’ confidence and drive further euro to US dollar appreciation into Q4 and beyond.”

Link to article Read More of Athanasia’s Commentary | Have a Question for Athanasia?

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