What Our Analysts Are Reading – 5/19/2017

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

Pratima SinghPratima Singh on “GST Council meeting: Consensus builds for 1 July rollout”

“The GST Council announced the rates for most goods and services under the new tax regime. Multinationals should study the specific tax rates for their products (as well as input products) to determine the impact of the GST on their bottom line. Executives should also ensure that their supply chain and channel partners are analyzing the impact of the new tax and are prepared for a July 1st rollout.”

Link to articleRead More of Pratima’s CommentaryHave a Question for Pratima?

Natalia DuarteNatalia Duarte on “Police and Protesters in Venezuela Share Common Grievances”

“As Venezuela’s crisis worsens each day (anti-government protests in recent weeks have resulted in more than 40 deaths and 2000 arrests), the loyalty of police officers in the country is increasingly tested. If the military (especially the poor) stops obeying orders as its loyalty to President Maduro falters, Venezuela’s fate could change since the government would lose its enforcement manpower. ”

Link to article | Read More of Natalia’s Commentary | Have a Question for Natalia?

William Attwell on “How to win in Kenya’s dynamic consumer market”

“Kenya is not necessarily an ‘easy win’, however. Those MNCs that succeed in the consumer space typically investment time and energy adapting their product offerings, packaging and pricing to the peculiarities of the local market, while developing tailored route-to-market strategies to reach consumers both in the formal and informal sector.”

Link to article | Read More of William’s CommentaryHave a Question for William?

Dalia Naguib on “Qalibaf Drops Out of Iran Presidential Race”

“Following the drop-out of one of the popular conservative candidates, Iran’s presidential election on Friday will likely be a head-to-head race between current President Rouhani and conservative candidate Ebrahim Raisi, reducing the likelihood of a second run-off round. While Rouhani currently leads Raisi in the polls, voter turnout will be an important factor to the outcome of the elections.”

Link to article | Read More of Dalia’s Commentary | Have a Question for Dalia?

Joel Whitaker on “Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats Win Election in Germany’s Biggest State”

“Sunday’s regional victory for Angela Merkel’s CDU is another signpost favoring FSG’s base case forecast for Europe. This result argues against our “Populists Crash the Euro” downside scenario, which we are lowering to 10% likelihood in the wake of Emmanuel Macron’s presidential win in France.”

Link to article |Read More of Joel’s Commentary | Have a Question for Joel?

Antonio MartinezAntonio Martinez on “Trump Administration’s Push to Revamp Nafta Faces a Divided Congress”

“Formal NAFTA renegotiation will likely begin late August/September, and multinationals need to monitor carefully what will be the major revisions that the Trump administration will seek. A modernization of NAFTA version of the revised agreement would take less time to negotiate than a more fraught protectionist approach. Multinationals should hope for a shorter negotiation period.”

Link to article Read More of Antonio’s Commentary |Have a Question for Antonio?

athanasia-kokkinogeniAthanasia Kokkinogeni on “Conservative manifesto: Mayism has arrived, but where are the Mayites?”

“MNCs will potentially see a hard line in the UK-EU27 Brexit negotiations by PM Theresa May after the UK elections on June 8. Majority of 400 seats is likely for the Conservative party linked with a stronger voice in Brexit negotiations. Tories manifesto reflects their views on the UK out of the single market and significantly reduced migration flows, which are likely to disrupt MNCs’ supply chains.”

Link to article |Read More of Athanasia’s Commentary | Have a Question for Athanasia?

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