What Our Analysts Are Reading – 5/12/2017

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

Antonio MartinezAntonio Martinez on “Nafta Revamp Is Slowed by Senate Maneuvering”

“The delay in confirming President Trump’s trade representative, Robert Lighthizer, is likely to push the beginning of formal trade talks between the US and its NAFTA partners until late summer, creating a continous cloud of uncertainty over the future of trade relations in North America. ”

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athanasia-kokkinogeniAthanasia Kokkinogeni on “After Macron win, France’s main parties fret over parliament elections”

“The next challenge for Macron is the June 11 and 18 parliamentary elections. As “En Marche!” is a new party, it is unlikely to get a majority in parliament, and Macron will therefore need to create a coalition, and negotiate his agenda. Even if Macron doesn’t fully implement his agenda, his presidency will ease uncertainty, and support a positive outlook.”

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Dalia Naguib on “Qalibaf Expected to Withdraw in Favor of Raeisi”

“Following the final Iranian presidential debate on May 12, the hardliner faction will choose either Raisi or Qalibaf to serve as their sole candidate who will face Rouhani in the May 19 election. All candidates expressed their commitment to the nuclear deal; however, it is vital to monitor Trump’s reaction to the election results, as the election of a hardliner could increase US-Iran tensions.”

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Zeynep Kosereisoglu on “Saudi Quarterly Budget Deficit Narrows With Oil Income Surge”

“Despite a lower than expected budget deficit in Q1 2017, the Saudi government’s plans to diversify revenues from oil -via tax and subsidy reform, bond issuance, and increased overseas investments- will remain on track. Thus, executive should ensure local teams maintain preparations for upcoming tax and subsidy reforms.”

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