What Our Analysts Are Reading – 4/14/2017

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

Dalia Naguib on “Egypt declares state of emergency after deadly church attacks”

“Security remains a risk in Egypt as the war against ISIS-affiliated groups continues. The church bombings and the declaration of a three-month state of emergency will likely hinder recovery in the tourism sector, a vital source of foreign exchange for Egypt.”

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Mark McNameeMark McNamee on “Trump’s Shift on Russia Brings Geopolitical Whiplash”

“Trump’s recent policy change with regard to Syria is certain to sour relations with Russia, which will negatively impact business operating in Russia. While Trump’s next moves in Syria are unclear, worse relations are likely to continue this year. MNCs will likely face increased regulatory pressure on their business from regional officials in light of this downturn in relations.”

Link to article | Read More of Mark’s Commentary | Have a Question for Mark?

athanasia-kokkinogeniAthanasia Kokkinogeni on “What if the French second round pits Mélenchon against Le Pen?”

“MNCs should prepare for a downside scenario in the French elections in May 7. Far-right Le Pen and far-left Mélenchon are the two anti-establishment candidates that could threaten pro-business Macron’s victory. If both make it to the run-off, the more mainstream candidate Mélenchon would defeat Le Pen, but still trigger euro depreciation and raise uncertainty for the eurozone.”

Link to article | Read More of Athanasia’s CommentaryHave a Question for Athanasia ?

MarioMario Gutierrez on “Argentina central bank raises policy rate by 150 basis points”

“Argentina’s central bank lifted interest rates by 150 basis points on Tuesday to 26.25 percent after the national statistics agency said inflation in March was a higher-than-expected 2.4 percent.”

Link to article | Read More of Mario’s Commentary | Have a Question for Mario?

Antonio MartinezAntonio Martinez on “Fed’s Janet Yellen Says Era of Stimulative Monetary Policy Is Ending”

“The Federal Reserve remains intent on tightening monetary conditions in the United States as long as economic conditions do not deteriorate. Given limited prospects for a recession in the short term, multinationals should expect continued FX pressure arising from gradual Fed tightening.”

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Alec LeeAlec Lee on “Brazil Graft Probe Widens to Dozens of Top Politicians”

“The revelations will likely create one to two weeks of turmoil in Brazil’s capital. However, FSG still places the likelihood that Temer passes pension reform (the key to economic recovery) at 60%.”

Link to article |Read More of Alec’s Commentary | Have a Question for Alec?

Danyi YangDanyi Yang on “Xi and Trump Discuss Rising Tensions With North Korea”

“Following China’s ban of imports of North Korean coal in Feb as an economic sanction, it has also signaled a potential cutoff of the North’s vital oil supplies if it should conduct a nuclear test. As the U.S. and China both exert more pressure on North Korea, MNCs should closely monitor regional tensions and prepare for potential market shocks.”

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