What Our Analysts Are Reading – 4/28/2017

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.


Cailey Stevens on “US launches national security probe into aluminium imports”

“President Trump has called for investigations into aluminum and steel imports which could result in the imposition of tariffs or other restrictions on in the name of national security. Such restrictions will likely provoke retaliation and could be challenged in the WTO. Although the investigations could come to naught, they represent an escalation in Trump’s anti-trade rhetoric.”

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Mark McNameeMark McNamee on “Keeping Afloat: Russia Worries Over Appreciating Ruble”

“Firms should prepare for far more ruble depreciation in H2 as the ruble is highly overvalued – by up to 15%. The ruble will likely weaken to average roughly 63-64 to the dollar in H2, particularly as the dollar strengthens and the Russian central bank consistently lowers the interest rate. Firms will see inflation rise minimally from the low rates seen in Q1 as a result. ”

Link to article | Read More of Mark’s Commentary | Have a Question for Mark?


athanasia-kokkinogeniAthanasia Kokkinogeni on “What to expect after the UK general election”

“Snap elections in June require close monitoring, as the new British government will shape the UK outlook in light of Brexit. Tories can win a majority according to latest polls, as the Labor party is currently vulnerable. However, majority isn’t guaranteed for PM May, as pro-EU voters could move towards the Liberal Democrats, which have committed to single market access and free labor movement.”

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MarioMario Gutierrez on “Mauricio Macri’s reforms provide the best hope for Argentina”

“Politically centrist, economically liberal and socially conscious, Mauricio Macri is emblematic of a new pragmatism in Latin America. Macri’s reforms have been a refreshing change from the ideology, corruption and mismanagement that characterized many of the populist presidents who came before, and now those reforms also represent the best hope for Argentina’s growth.”

Link to article | Read More of Mario’s Commentary | Have a Question for Mario?


Zeynep Kosereisoglu on “Saudi Arabia’s King Salman reverses public sector pay cuts”

“Executives should view the reversal of public sector salary cuts as a positive sign for consumer spending in the kingdom in 2017. However, pressures from utilities price increases and tax hikes, as well as fewer employment opportunities in the public sector will continue to depress consumer confidence in Saudi Arabia.”

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Antonio MartinezAntonio Martinez on “Trump backs off NAFTA withdrawal”

“President Trump has disavowed earlier reports of an executive order announcing the US government’s intention to exit NAFTA. The pullback is a positive sign for the current state of NAFTA renegotiation, but clients should expect that trade talks are likely to be contentious.”

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Alec LeeAlec Lee on “Brazil lawmakers pass labor bill in bittersweet victory for Temer”

“While the measure will surely drive higher productivity and lower costs for companies over the long-run, more importantly its passage through the House of Deputies demonstrates Temer’s continued ability to muster votes. This latter point is incredibly important as the government will next attempt to pass pension reform, the key to near term economic recovery.”

Link to article |Read More of Alec’s Commentary | Have a Question for Alec?


Danyi YangDanyi Yang on “Emerging Markets File More Patents Than the West”

“With 1.49 million patent applications by the 12 leading emerging market countries in 2015, EM nations have overtaken developed economies for the first time in the number of patents filed. Led by China, EM economies are moving up the value chain and presenting increasing opportunities for MNCs in the areas of R&D and value-added services.”

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