What Our Analysts Are Reading – 3/3/2017

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

Pablo GonzalezPablo Gonzalez on “Are emerging markets entering a new virtuous cycle?”

“With iron-ore prices more than doubling in 2016 and oil prices stabilizing, many investors wonder whether emerging markets are entering into a new commodity super-cycle. The underlying factors however point to a more fragile story.”

Link to articleRead More of Pablo’s CommentaryHave a Question for Pablo?

athanasia-kokkinogeniAthanasia Kokkinogeni on “The Priced-In Risk of Marine Le Pen’s Victory”

“EU populist parties threaten to call for EU referendums should they win elections, but their victories do not mean that such referendums would be called and succeed. Although a pro-business center or right candidate will likely defeat Marine Le Pen in the May presidential run-off, MNCs should take into account a 30-35% likelihood downside as they plan for potential disruptors for 2017 and beyond.”

Link to article | Read More of Athanasia’s Commentary | Have a Question for Athanasia?

Mark McNameeMark McNamee on “NBU head estimates Ukraine’s GDP fall in 2017 at 1.3 p.p. to 1.5% if blockade lasts until year end”

“MNCs should be closely monitoring developments regarding the trade blockade between the Donbas and the rest of Ukraine, both for its economic as well as political impacts. Aside from clear threats to supply chains, energy and heating, populist parties are eager to seize this opportunity to discredit President Poroshenko’s government and force early elections.”

Link to article | Read More of Mark’s CommentaryHave a Question for Mark?

Dalia Naguib on “Tunisia to accelerate reforms as IMF freezes loan: minister”

“The Tunisian government has a difficult job of balancing the stringent conditions of the IMF and maintaining favorable public opinion. Accelerating reforms such as cutting public sector jobs could tip the scale and lead Tunisia’s trade unions to call for more protests and strikes across the country.”

Link to article | Read More of Dalia’s Commentary | Have a Question for Dalia?

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