What Our Analysts Are Reading – 3/24/2017

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

William Attwell on “Rand gets even stronger as investors warm up to South Africa”

“Some of the rand’s strength is attributable to a recovery from several domestic shocks in 2015-16. However, further policy tightening by the US Federal Reserve coupled with domestic political risks later in the year will likely undermine these gains.”

Link to articleRead More of William’s CommentaryHave a Question for William?

athanasia-kokkinogeniAthanasia Kokkinogeni on “As French Election Nears, Le Pen Targets Voters Her Party Once Repelled”

“Although voters will support Le Pen in the first round of elections, she will unlikely get the unanimous support necessary to win in the presidential run-off in May, when more mainstream candidates like Emmanuel Macron or Francois Fillon are expected to defeat her. However, MNCs should have a clear sense of whether their business is exposed to her victory given its high (30-35%) likelihood.”

Link to article | Read More of Athanasia’s Commentary | Have a Question for Athanasia?

Cheng Siew Chua on “Duterte: International Criminal Court ‘cannot stop me'”

“Despite foreign pressure, President Duterte is continuing his anti-crime drive. International involvement will be pointless and end up in a stalemate, as the president believes the root of the problem is domestic. Businesses are unlikely to be negatively impacted and the anti-crime drive will gradually improve the economic landscape in the Philippines over the long-term.”

Link to article | Read More of Cheng Siew’s CommentaryHave a Question for Cheng Siew?

MarioMario Gutierrez on “More Argentines disapprove of Macri than approve for first time: poll”

“President Mauricio Macri has started to face popularity problems, as more Argentines disapprove his administration than approve for the first time since he took office in December 2015. Very inconvenient news taking into consideration that Congressional elections will take place in only six months from now.”

Link to article | Read More of Mario’s Commentary | Have a Question for Mario?

Natalia DuarteNatalia Duarte on “Crisis-hit Venezuela halts publication of another major indicator”

“Adding to the long list of indicators no longer published by the Venezuelan government, the country’s central bank has stopped publishing data on money supply (M2). The indicator was showing an exponential increase in money in circulation, which accelerates inflation. Government efforts to suppress data and hide the country’s economic reality highlight Venezuela’s worsening conditions.”

Link to article | Read More of Natalia’s Commentary | Have a Question for Natalia?

Josef Jelinek on “Shadow Lending Threatens China’s Economy, Officials Warn”

“The rise of shadow lending in China has long been a concern among China-watchers, given the inter-linkages with the rest of the financial system, the speculative nature of the lending to risky borrowers, the mismatch between short-term liabilities and long-term assets and peoples’ belief that their investments are protected by government backing.”

Link to article| Have a Question for Josef?

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