Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.
Antonio Martinez on “Economic Growth Lags Behind Rising Confidence Data”
“Business and consumer confidence is rising, the US stock market is seeing impressive performance, but economic data continue to indicate limited signs of accelerating growth for the US economy in Q1. Multinationals need to closely monitor the prospects of the Trump legislative agenda in the coming months, as President Trump’s stimulus measures are likely the main forces to drive higher US growth.”
Athanasia Kokkinogeni on “Who won the Dutch election and what does it mean for Geert Wilders and the far-Right in the Netherlands and Europe?”
“Rutte’s VVD Party won the Dutch elections, and Geert Wilders’ far-right PVV had a strong second-finish. Although Wilders wants to participate in coalition talks, the rest of the elected parties are rejecting a coalition with him, mitigating any concerns over a new referendum on EU membership, and an EU break-up. Rutte’s re-election ensures policy continuity, and solid growth for the Dutch economy.”
Mark McNamee on “Russian oil major says U.S. shale growth imperils OPEC deal”
“The lack of an extension of the OPEC deal into H2 would place significant downward pressure on oil prices, particularly as the dollar strengthens and US shale ramps up. Even with continued compliance with production cuts, oil prices have been unable to rise towards US $60/bbl and there is little reason to see prices rise notably from their current levels the rest of the year.”
Dalia Naguib on “La totalité des importations soumise à des licences”
“All products entering Algeria will be subject to import licenses. To cope with low oil prices, the government is continuing measures to cut down on its import bill. To avoid delays in operations, MNCs must ensure their local partners are equipped with the capabilities to comply with stricter regulations around the importation of goods.”
Natalia Duarte on “Ecuador: Lasso Gains Support From More Political Parties”
“Presidential opposition candidate Guillermo Lasso is gaining support from other political parties as Ecuador heads to round two of the presidential election on April 2, where Lasso will run against Lenin Moreno of the incumbent Alianza Pais party. Lasso’s ability to coalesce the opposition and gain support presents him as a formidable candidate with increasing likelihood of winning the election.”
Alec Lee on “Energy Prices in Brazil’s “Free-Market” Rise by 700% Because of Drought”
“Prices are unlikely to subside in the short term, and will eventually affect consumer prices, though not enough to slow the current monetary easing round. Expect higher prices to help drive further investment in the sector over the medium term.”
Pratima Singh on “Narendra Modi’s B.J.P. Party Wins Big in Uttar Pradesh, India’s Largest State”
The party’s impressive performance signals policy continuity by increasing the likelihood of Modi returning to office for a second term in 2019. The BJP’s big win will also strengthen the party’s position in the upper house of Parliament, giving PM Modi the support he needs to implement economic reform. MNCs should relook at their India plans as the country’s economic outlook continues to improve..