What Our Analysts Are Reading – 2/3/2017

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Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

Joel Whitaker on “The Trump bulldozer”

“All signs on Capitol Hill point to our “Trump in Charge” scenario with little opposition among GOP legislators to President Trump’s transformative agenda on trade, immigration, and even global alliances — portending more disruption to emerging-market economies rather than less.”

Link to articleRead More of Joel’s CommentaryHave a Question for Joel?

Cheng Siew Chua on “Asia targets tourism, education boost from Trump travel ban”

“With stricter immigration curbs and a temporary travel ban in the US, Southeast Asian countries are expecting more tourists. In particular, Malaysia and Thailand are popular travel destinations for Middle Eastern tourists and will benefit from a higher number of visitors. MNCs in the region should evaluate how the potential boost in tourism will impact the demand for their products and services.”

Link to article | Read More of Cheng Siew’s Commentary | Have a Question for Cheng Siew?

Mark McNameeMark McNamee on “Romania protests grow over corruption decree”

“The raging anti-government protests are highly reminiscent of those that brought down the former prime minister Victor Ponta in November 2015. MNCs should expect a highly contentious political environment throughout the year with protests – including those ongoing – potentially dragging on for weeks until the ruling party submits to demonstrator demands.”

Link to article | Read More of Mark’s CommentaryHave a Question for Mark?

Dalia Naguib on “Israel says will build 3,000 new homes in West Bank settlements”

“With plans to build 3,000 more settlement homes in the West Bank, this brings Israel’s total announced settlement homes to 6,000 since US President Trump’s inauguration. MNCs should monitor this sensitive situation, as potential retaliation from Palestinians could cause social unrest and disruptions to business operations.”

Link to article | Read More of Dalia’s Commentary | Have a Question for Dalia?

Pratima SinghPratima Singh on “India Budget Focuses on Rural Development, Growth After Cash Crunch”

“As expected, the FY 2017-18 budget focused on sectors that are struggling as a result of the recent currency demonetization. The most positive feature of this budget was that it didn’t disrupt India’s economic outlook. Instead, it focused on government investment and expenditure to drive economic recovery. Watch out for FSG’s upcoming India Market Review for a more detailed analysis of the budget.”

Link to article | Read More of Pratima’s Commentary | Have a Question for Pratima?

Matthew KindingerMatthew Kindinger on “Ghana Finds a $1.6 Billion Hole in Budget”

“Ghana’s newly elected government claims to have discovered US$1.6 billion of undisclosed expenditure incurred by the previous administration. This development will add to the significant challenges the government is already facing in terms of cutting the fiscal deficit and lowering public debt.”

Link to article | Read More of Matthew’s Commentary | Have a Question for Matthew?

Josef Jelinek on “As Trump sows tensions with Mexico, Beijing may reap rewards”

Even if Mexico’s trade with the US is curtailed, it is unlikely that Mexico would get much traction in any efforts to move towards China. While China may be willing to overlook some of the economics, if it sees an opportunity to get closer to Mexico, over the longer-term, such moves would probably not be enough to offset the fundamental economic drivers.

Link to article Have a Question for Josef?

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