Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.
Joel Whitaker on “Emerging markets’ Trump tantrum abates, except in Turkey”
“An emerging market’s high international debt, especially from “hot money” rather than FDI, should signal caution for corporate leaders. Resilience to external shocks has become an increasingly important consideration for balancing risk and reward in any MNC’s market portfolio.”
William Attwell on “Manufacturing sector is expanding, PMI shows”
“The positive reading indicates that the moderate recovery in the manufacturing sector that began in mid-2016 is continuing, bolstered by increased electricity supplies (which grew by 0.8% YOY in December) and stable, albeit relatively weak, domestic demand.”
Mark McNamee on “Russians Are Getting Used to Being Broke”
“As incomes remain weak and Russians dip further into their savings, consumer demand in 2017 will not strengthen much. Rising prices and slowing inflation will not provide enough of a boost to improve the economic recovery. MNCs need to focus on their marketing and operations, particularly customer segmentation, in order to win in this only slowly improving market.”
Dalia Naguib on “Cabinet to OK budget, agree vote law this month”
“If law-makers can agree on a budget, it will be Lebanon’s first official budget since 2005. A proposal to increase wages for civil servants would support consumer spending, while small tax increases would help support government revenue, and therefore demand. Most importantly, an official budget would improve investor confidence and provide more clarity for MNCs operating in Lebanon.”
Mario Gutierrez on “Argentina’s Trump-Like Immigration Order Rattles South America”
“Argentina is so used to celebrating immigration as a cornerstone of society that even a 19th-century saying “to govern is to populate” remains in use to this day. However, President Macri’s recent executive order will implement stricter measures to limit the increasing wave of immigrants to Argentina.”
Cheng Siew Chua on “Elections now promised for 2018”
“Previously companies in Thailand anticipated political stability to last until mid-October 2017, which marks the end of the mourning period for the late Thai King Bhumibol Adulyadej. Given the government’s tentative commitment to hold an election in Q1 2018, it is likely that Thailand’s period of political stability will extend until at least the end of this year.”
Josef Jelinek on “The Economist explains: What might a trade war between America and China look like?”
While there may be some winners from a trade war between America and China, ultimately both countries would end up harming themselves. Arguably, China would probably have the most to lose, The United States is China’s largest single-country trade partner, accounting for 18% of total Chinese exports and about 3.8% of its GDP, while U.S. exports to China account for about 0.65% of U.S. GDP.