Turkey: Plan for volatility but stay focused on long-term opportunities

A number of issues have been causing multinationals to question investment plans for Turkey in the past year:

  • The country experienced three major terrorist attacks allegedly perpetrated by ISIS in the last year and fears of geopolitical risk – whether related to relations with Russia or developments in Syria – are intensifying
  • The Turkish army is waging a war against the terrorist group PKK in the southeast
  • Concerns about authoritarianism as well as judicial and regulatory unpredictability are rising
  • The Turkish lira is one of the most volatile currencies in EMEA, generating worries about the vulnerability of the country’s private sector

However, in an environment where all major economies are slowing in EMEA, multinationals cannot afford to ignore Turkey as a growth market in their EMEA portfolio with the opportunities the country provides:

  • One of the largest and most resilient populations in CEEMEA
  • The most sophisticated and experienced local businesses and manufacturing bases
  • A strategic location for hubbing
  • A relatively strong fiscal position

FSG’s latest podcast on Turkey suggests multinationals plan for volatility but also stay focused on long-term opportunities. It touches on the outlook for political instability and economic growth, the trajectory of the Turkish lira and the risk of economic crisis, the impact of the low oil prices, and what an upside scenario for Turkey looks like.

To learn more about FSG’s oil price forecasts and their impact on oil exporting markets listen to FSG’s podcast on EMEA in 2016: Oil Price Outlook and Implications for Multinationals

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