The IMF released their newest edition of its World Economic Outlook, complete with its latest forecasts, in April. Similar to our previous blog post comparing FSG FrontierData forecasts with the IMF’s, FSG’s GDP forecasts lead the IMF’s by four months.
The IMF forecasts global GDP growth around 3.3 percent, matching what FSG forecast four months ago. Since then, we have continued to revise down many of our forecasts, especially in countries facing substantial economic adjustments as a result of the global macroeconomic environment, such as Venezuela and Ukraine. FSG’s forecasting methodology considers not only in-depth economic analysis, but also our clients’ macroeconomic reality, consistently leading the market in incorporating on-the-ground insights not reflected in lagging official data. Due to these downward revisions, we are currently forecasting global GDP growth around 3.1 percent.
After a disappointing start to the year in emerging markets, our clients face a very challenging strategic planning season. Companies should be revisiting their current-year goals. While large public sources like the IMF and the World Bank publish forecast data on an annual or bi-annual basis, FSG’s monthly forecast revisions ensures our clients have the most up-to-date information possible. In a global economic environment in which market monitoring, benchmarking, and analytics have become extremely volatile, our clients’ time is our priority. A four-month head start on their market monitoring is a good first step.