Volatility in Venezuela: Using Scenario-Based Forecasts in Strategic Plans

As economic conditions worsen and social unrest continues, multinationals are facing significant challenges in planning ahead for their Venezuelan operations. With both the short-term and long-term outlook for Venezuela unclear, and with government policies lacking coherence and credibility in the face of growing problems, multinationals are increasingly using scenario-based forecasting as they develop their strategic plans for Venezuela.

FSG has recently released for its clients a set of comprehensive scenarios for Venezuela, focusing on the economic and political dimensions that will determine how economic indicators and the business environment will evolve as Venezuela continues to deal with its enormous challenges. The scenarios that we have developed include the following:

Venezuela Economic Scenario Planning Table

Along with these scenarios, we look at the potential for deteriorating economic conditions to lead to greater political instability, which would increase the prospects for regime change, for good or ill.

For FSG clients interested in learning more, the full report is available here.

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