What Does The Rise of Manufacturing in ASEAN Mean for Multinationals?

While the rise of Southeast Asia has been discussed widely over the past few years due to its strong consumption demand, the production aspects of the region remain relatively unexplored with many companies not having examined ASEAN’s manufacturing capabilities, its ability to achieve economic integration, and the comparative strengths of the individual members as production units. FSG’s research shows that manufacturing is likely to play a significant role in ASEAN for years to come

The Rise of Manufacturing in ASEAN

Southeast Asia has experienced a strong CAGR of 5.5% in terms of its manufacturing output over the last decade and is now responsible for almost 4% of the global manufacturing output. This growth has been funded both by domestic companies as well as foreign investors; ASEAN surpassed China in terms of the FDI inflow in 2013 and the manufacturing sector received a large chunk of the funds. In fact, more than 30% of all FDI that has flown into ASEAN between 2005 and 2010 (see pie-cart below) has been towards manufacturing, and the sector is likely to continue to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the growing interest from foreign investors. The major reasons for this drive in investments can be summarized through the ASEAN’s four C’s: Consumption (growth), Cost (low), Commodities (abundant), and Community (single ASEAN trade bloc)

ASEAN 1

However, even though the majority of the ASEAN countries have moved out of the agrarian state and have seen this growth in manufacturing, many are still in the early industrialization phases; meaning that the manufacturing sector is going to continue to see strong growth over the next 10 to 20 years (see graphic on the evolution of countries below) and will play a significant role in the development of the region

ASEAN 2

Assess the Direct Impact of the Rise of Manufacturing

  1. Serving the market: As costs rise elsewhere and the addressable market becomes larger in ASEAN, companies should explore the viability of moving production to the region using a “total factor performance” analysis. It is important to make sure that the analysis looks beyond the simple math of labor-cost and considers total factor performance (labor, transport, leadership, material, components, energy, and capital)
  2. Business customers (B2B) movement: Companies serving other manufacturing and production types of businesses should be assessing what types of industries are likely to invest heavily into Southeast Asia and which are not likely to consider moving beyond China

Gauge the Spillover Effects from the Rise of Manufacturing

  1. Productivity impact: The rise of manufacturing is going to positively impact productivity within the region, which has not seen a large improvement over the past decade. Manufacturing makes outsized contributions to trade, research and development (R&D), and productivity. The sector generates 70% of exports in major manufacturing economies, both advanced and emerging, and up to 90% of business R&D spending. Such productivity growth provides additional benefits, including considerable consumer surplus
  2. Rise in consumption will impact all industries: As the less industrialized countries of Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Myanmar, and Cambodia move from agrarian societies to manufacturing ones, companies should expect consumption dynamics to evolve. As people move from the less predictable farming sector to the fixed-wage manufacturing sector, they tend to experience strong income growth, increasing their capacity to consume. Even companies not exploring manufacturing opportunities in the region need to be monitoring this trend

Establish a Strategic Role for the ASEAN Region in Your APAC Portfolio

  1. Evaluate a “China Plus” strategy- China’s rise to manufacturing prominence over the past two decades has been staggering. However, rising costs, more sophisticated consumers, and fundamental macroeconomic realities mean that current approaches to manufacturing are losing their relevance. As the imperative for companies in China will be to boost productivity, refine product-development approaches, and tame supply-chain complexity, ASEAN has appeared on the horizon as a viable alternative for companies looking to expand their manufacturing footprint into relatively lower-cost locations. ASEAN countries provide cheaper labor, investor-friendly governments, and are part of established supply chains
  2. Compare the competitiveness of ASEAN (to China and India) – China is unlikely to lose its dominant position as the “factory of the world” anytime soon because of its well-established infrastructure, existing manufacturing facilities, ability to scale quickly, and strong involvement in established global supply chains. However, certain low value-added industries are likely to consider moving out of the country or at least setting up their next facility in Southeast Asia, where the cost of labor can be less than half of that in coastal China. ASEAN countries provide access to several raw materials, and certain locations have strong linkages to trade infrastructure
  3. Explore ASEAN’s complementarity to China- ASEAN countries are also likely to be playing a complementary role to China within several industries that depend on Asia for producing parts and final assembly. Given China’s established role as one of the most productive assembly locations in the world, due to its ability to scale quickly and availability of infrastructure, many companies produce their parts and components in cost-effective locations within the ASEAN region, conduct the final assembly in China, and then have the finished product shipped to the end customer. The ASEAN-China free trade agreement has helped companies create such fragmented supply chains

In FSG’s latest report on the region, titled ‘ASEAN’s Role in Manufacturing’, (a) we explore the rise of ASEAN as a manufacturing hub, (b) diagnose the viability of movement of different types of industries into Southeast Asian countries, (c) conduct a location analysis of the various manufacturing sites in ASEAN, and (d) decipher the impact of the ASEAN Economic Community on manufacturing decisions. FSG clients may click here to see the full report

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