Emerging Market View: What Our Analysts Are Reading – 3/1/2013

Many of this week’s US headlines primarily focused on the the imminent United States government sequestration.  In addition to following those developments, our research talent kept an eye on headlines pertaining to emerging markets, too.  Below are some headlines with FSG research analyst commentary:

Bloomberg News reported that Emerging Stocks Erase Weekly Gain on China, Commodities:

“Today’s headlines highlight the US budget sequester’s ripple effect on emerging-market growth. That could incrementally diminish the opportunities for MNCs in some EMs, but it doesn’t change the fundamentals. We are more concerned that US-based MNCs will react to economic mismanagement at home by remaining overly risk-averse abroad, allowing local competitors to capture yet more market share.”
– Joel Whitaker, Senior Vice President and Head of Global Research

The Wall Street Journal’s Deal Journal blog posted Doubts Over Returns Hit Fundraising in China:

“Look beyond headline GDP to gauge China’s economic performance. Look at corporate profits in China and return of PE investment is a good indicator.”
– Shijie Chen, Research Practice Leader for Asia Pacific

From Reuters – Brazil may use imports to curb inflation:

“Offhand comments by Brazil’s finance minister raise the possibility that the country could drop import tariffs in sectors and on goods where local producers have been raising prices aggressively. This would be a 180 turn from years past, when Brazil raised tariffs on imported goods in industries impacted by cheaper imports due to a strong currency.”
– Clinton Carter, Director of Research for Latin America

And lastly, another article from Reuters – Russia says central bank independence not at risk:

As CEE governments struggle to boost growth without increasing fiscal deficits, they are increasingly pushing regional central banks to cut interest rates, even at the expense of undermining the banks’ independence. This is a trend to watch in 2013, especially in Russia where reduced central bank autonomy could significantly undermine investor confidence.”
– Martina Bozadzhieva, Senior Analyst for Central and Eastern Europe

 

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