Saturday saw Russia’s biggest political riddle resolved – Vladimir Putin announced he was running for another term as president and offered Medvedev the post of prime minister. What does this mean for Russia’s business climate?
We now have clarity about Russia’s leadership for at least another six years. United Russia is set to win the elections this fall, and there is no doubt Putin will win the presidential elections in March 2012. This implies continuity in current government policies and actors, and will certainly boost investor confidence in Russia. It should at least partially support Russia’s falling currency and weakening stock market. Although the continuing crisis in the euro zone and the falling oil prices will minimize the announcement’s positive effect on the ruble, we can at the very least expect greater capital inflows through the rest of the year as well as an increase in FDI in the country.
In the short-to-medium term, this is good news for MNCs selling and operating in Russia, especially in the context of an unpredictable global economy. However, there are several potential threats down the road companies should watch out for.
First, there is wide consensus that the Russian economy requires fundamental reform away from its dependence on oil prices and high government spending. Such reform would mean reducing government spending on social programs, and will certainly be met with discontent among the population, something that Putin may or may not be ready to face. There is significant inertia in the Russian government and Putin is if anything a symbol and perpetuator of the status quo. Should oil prices remain high, Russia will hum along well enough. However, a prolonged fall in oil prices will bring about a very serious crisis in Russia, and the country is nowhere nearly as well prepared to weather it now than it was in 2008.
Second, while Russians still see no political alternative to Putin, there is a growing sense of stagnation – political, social, and economic within Russia that Putin is increasingly beginning to symbolize. Russians may vote for Putin, but that doesn’t mean they actively support him and his policies. In the short-to-medium term this has few implications. In the long term, however, it’s the stuff of social upheaval. Russia is inevitably headed into a major political transformation, and it’s now clear its current political leadership is not ready to steward the country through to it.
To sum it up, MNCs will benefit from a relative improvement in Russia’s business climate in the short term, will need to watch carefully for whether and what economic reforms the government undertakes after March 2012, and expect that in the long term, the rules of the game in Russia will change.